Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 28799.99 after issuance and before Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST

30-day trend

Analysis

This contract estimates a 93% probability that the Nasdaq-100 will trade above 28,799.99 at some point between now and December 31, 2026 at 4pm EST. The high probability reflects current market positioning—with the index near historical highs—combined with an eight-month time window that provides ample opportunity for the threshold to be reached even if the index experiences moderate pullbacks. The probability would decline if sustained economic weakness, rising interest rates, or sector rotation away from large-cap technology stocks creates downward pressure. Conversely, strong corporate earnings, Fed accommodation, or broad-based equity strength would reinforce this view. The contract will resolve when the year-end deadline passes; interim volatility and earnings seasons through 2026 will likely be the primary drivers of probability shifts as they influence expectations for tech valuations heading into year-end.

• ›The Nasdaq-100 closed 2024 above 20,000 and has continued appreciating in early 2026; the 28,800 level represents meaningful but not extreme appreciation from recent levels
• ›Tighter contracts (28,400 and above) trade at 83%, while looser thresholds (27,700) trade much lower, indicating significant concentration of probability in the 27,700–28,800 range
• ›An eight-month runway to year-end 2026 substantially increases the statistical likelihood of touching the strike price versus a near-term event, reducing tail-risk sensitivity
• ›Corporate earnings reports, Fed policy announcements, and macroeconomic data releases through Q3 and Q4 2026 will be primary drivers of intermediate probability adjustments
• ›Higher-strike contracts (33,000) trade at only 15%, suggesting markets price substantial uncertainty about sustained upside momentum beyond the primary threshold

What moved the line

• Jun 1831,400 or above↑71pp1→72¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 1831,600 or above↑69pp1→70¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 2331,600 or above↓68pp70→2¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 1831,800 or above↑66pp1→67¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 2331,800 or above↓66pp68→2¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds