Nasdaq-100 between 23000 and 23499.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST
23,000 to 23,499.99 is priced at 2¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 1¢ bid, 2¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #12 of 16 inside Will the Nasdaq-100.
Price history
2¢ current
Contract brief
If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 23000 and 23499.99, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
23,000 to 23,499.99
Rank
#12 of 16
Leader
33,000.01 or above 24¢
Range
1¢-24¢
Family volume
$12K
Identifier
KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-B23250
Jun 6, 2026, 3:30 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
1¢
Ask
2¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$97
Family rank
#12 of 16
16 outcomes · Will the Nasdaq-100
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$12K
Orderbook snapshot
1 / 2¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 23000 and 23499.99, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-B23250
Event family
Will the Nasdaq-100.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$12K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
33,000.01 or above 24¢
Current share
1%
33,000.01 or above
kalshi · KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-T33000
18,999.99 or below
kalshi · KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-T19000
27,500 to 27,999.99
kalshi · KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-B27750
28,500 to 28,999.99
kalshi · KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-B28750
30,500 to 30,999.99
kalshi · KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-B30750
27,000 to 27,499.99
kalshi · KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-B27250
21,000 to 21,499.99
kalshi · KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-B21250
28,000 to 28,499.99
kalshi · KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-B28250
29,000 to 29,499.99
kalshi · KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-B29250
29,500 to 29,999.99
kalshi · KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-B29750
30,000 to 30,499.99
kalshi · KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-B30250
19,500 to 19,999.99
kalshi · KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-B19750
32,500 to 33,000
kalshi · KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-B32750
21,500 to 21,999.99
kalshi · KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-B21750
19,000 to 19,499.99
kalshi · KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-B19250
23,000 to 23,499.99
kalshi · KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-B23250
Browse this series
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
financial
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 2% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.