Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 28500 and 28999.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?
Prediction markets currently give a 6% probability that Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 28500 and 28999.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?. This contract trades at 6¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market prices an extremely narrow 500-point band (28500-28999.99) on the Nasdaq-100 with just 5% implied probability, generating an extraordinary 2680% annualized yield on the Yes side—a classic long-shot contract typical of binary range bets.
Analysis
This market prices an extremely narrow 500-point band (28500-28999.99) on the Nasdaq-100 with just 5% implied probability, generating an extraordinary 2680% annualized yield on the Yes side—a classic long-shot contract typical of binary range bets. The 7-day price movement from 1¢ to 5¢ suggests recent accumulation of Yes positions despite the tight range, though the $544 daily volume and $32k open interest indicate relatively thin liquidity for a 259-day contract. The 19 Cliff Risk Index and stark 2673-point yield gap between Yes and No sides highlight the extreme asymmetry inherent in pricing such a specific outcome nearly two years out.
Resolution rules
If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 28500 and 28999.99, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-B28750 yes 100