Nasdaq-100 below 19000 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST
18,999.99 or below is priced at 10¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 9¢ bid, 10¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 16 inside Will the Nasdaq-100.
Price history
10¢ current
+4¢Contract brief
If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is below 19000, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
18,999.99 or below
Rank
#2 of 16
Leader
33,000.01 or above 22¢
Range
1¢-22¢
Family volume
$29K
Identifier
KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-T19000
Jun 7, 2026, 4:08 AM UTC · 8m ago
Implied probability
Bid
9¢
Ask
10¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$2K
Family rank
#2 of 16
16 outcomes · Will the Nasdaq-100
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$29K
Orderbook snapshot
9 / 10¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is below 19000, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-T19000
Event family
Will the Nasdaq-100.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$29K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
33,000.01 or above 22¢
Current share
7%
33,000.01 or above
kalshi · KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-T33000
18,999.99 or below
kalshi · KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-T19000
25,500 to 25,999.99
kalshi · KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-B25750
32,000 to 32,499.99
kalshi · KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-B32250
22,500 to 22,999.99
kalshi · KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-B22750
19,000 to 19,499.99
kalshi · KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-B19250
26,000 to 26,499.99
kalshi · KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-B26250
23,000 to 23,499.99
kalshi · KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-B23250
24,000 to 24,499.99
kalshi · KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-B24250
21,500 to 21,999.99
kalshi · KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-B21750
26,500 to 26,999.99
kalshi · KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-B26750
24,500 to 24,999.99
kalshi · KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-B24750
20,000 to 20,499.99
kalshi · KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-B20250
20,500 to 20,999.99
kalshi · KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-B20750
22,000 to 22,499.99
kalshi · KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-B22250
25,000 to 25,499.99
kalshi · KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-B25250
Browse this series
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
financial
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.