Nasdaq-100 above 33000 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST
33,000.01 or above is priced at 24¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 23¢ bid, 24¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 16 inside Will the Nasdaq-100.
Price history
24¢ current
−1¢Contract brief
If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is above 33000, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
33,000.01 or above
Rank
#1 of 16
Leader
33,000.01 or above 23¢
Range
1¢-23¢
Family volume
$10K
Identifier
KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-T33000
Jun 8, 2026, 6:08 AM UTC · 7m ago
Implied probability
Bid
23¢
Ask
24¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$335
Family rank
#1 of 16
16 outcomes · Will the Nasdaq-100
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$10K
Orderbook snapshot
23 / 24¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is above 33000, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-T33000
Event family
Will the Nasdaq-100.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$10K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
33,000.01 or above 23¢
Current share
3%
33,000.01 or above
kalshi · KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-T33000
18,999.99 or below
kalshi · KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-T19000
31,000 to 31,499.99
kalshi · KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-B31250
31,500 to 31,999.99
kalshi · KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-B31750
29,500 to 29,999.99
kalshi · KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-B29750
30,500 to 30,999.99
kalshi · KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-B30750
32,000 to 32,499.99
kalshi · KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-B32250
28,000 to 28,499.99
kalshi · KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-B28250
19,000 to 19,499.99
kalshi · KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-B19250
19,500 to 19,999.99
kalshi · KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-B19750
21,000 to 21,499.99
kalshi · KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-B21250
26,500 to 26,999.99
kalshi · KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-B26750
32,500 to 33,000
kalshi · KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-B32750
20,500 to 20,999.99
kalshi · KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-B20750
20,000 to 20,499.99
kalshi · KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-B20250
21,500 to 21,999.99
kalshi · KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-B21750
Browse this series
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
financial
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.