Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 27500 and 27999.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?
Prediction markets currently give a 6% probability that Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 27500 and 27999.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?. This contract trades at 6¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 5¢ Yes price implying only a 5% probability for a relatively narrow 500-point band on the Nasdaq-100, yet the implied yield on the Yes side reaches an extraordinary 3384.5% annualized.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with a 5¢ Yes price implying only a 5% probability for a relatively narrow 500-point band on the Nasdaq-100, yet the implied yield on the Yes side reaches an extraordinary 3384.5% annualized. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $32,474 open interest and a 2¢ spread suggests illiquidity is preventing arbitrage of this apparent dislocation, though the neutral regime score offers no directional guidance on whether the band is genuinely unlikely or simply underpriced. With 259 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 24, the market appears to be pricing in significant tail risk, but the asymmetric yield profile warrants caution about whether this reflects genuine market consensus or a liquidity trap.
Resolution rules
If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 27500 and 27999.99, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-B27750 yes 100