SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

Nasdaq-100 Close-Price Bucket Markets — pricing the ladder, 46 thresholds.

46 live Kalshi contracts (57 audited). Median implied probability sits at 6%. 63 contracts moved 5cents+ in the last 24h (biggest: KXNASDAQ100-26JUN26H1600-T29000 +33c). Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXNASDAQ.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXNASDAQ
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXNASDAQ
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXNASDAQ",
    "label": "Nasdaq-100 Close-Price Bucket Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 46,
    "volume24hSum": 16750.51,
    "hasThesisCount": 0
  },
  "termFit": null
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 25 Jun 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100
Vol Flow$16.8K-63%
min $5.9Kmax $46.4K
Breadth-11%-52.3pp
min -100%max 100%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 18:00 UTC
Jun 18past 7d · UTCJun 25 · 16:23

Live contracts

46

Median IY

6¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$16.8K

Days to catalyst

none

no scheduled catalyst

SF thesis coverage

0

Bucket count

45

thresholds fitted

Threshold ladder — 46 contracts at one resolution

Mean fit deviation 2.2pp
0%25%50%75%100%implied EV ≈ 29427.84190002900029750306503125033000cdfsurvivalimplied EV

Bars ordered by threshold ascending. Pink = cheapest vs hazard fit; purple = richest. Solid emerald = cumulative implied probability; dashed zinc = survival; dashed amber = implied EV.

Top markets in Nasdaq-100 Close-Price Bucket Markets

Showing top 20 of 46

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

Will the Nasdaq-100 be below 29000 at the end of Jun 26, 2026 at 4pm EDT?: 28,999.99 or below16¢
IY >999%Cliff 5Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$4.2K
Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 33000 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 33,000.01 or above31¢
IY 430%Cliff 2Edge —RVol 396%Resid —$2.4K
Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 29400 and 29499.9900 at the end of Jun 26, 2026 at 4pm EDT?: 29,400 to 29,499.997¢
IY >999%Cliff 13Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$1.3K
Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 29500 and 29599.9900 at the end of Jun 26, 2026 at 4pm EDT?: 29,500 to 29,599.997¢
IY >999%Cliff 13Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$1.2K
Will the Nasdaq-100 be below 22000.01 after issuance and before Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 22,000 or below18¢
IY 879%Cliff 5Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$1.0K
Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 30100 and 30199.9900 at the end of Jun 26, 2026 at 4pm EDT?: 30,100 to 30,199.993¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$986
Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 29700 and 29799.9900 at the end of Jun 26, 2026 at 4pm EDT?: 29,700 to 29,799.997¢
IY >999%Cliff 13Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$841
Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 29900 and 29999.9900 at the end of Jun 26, 2026 at 4pm EDT?: 29,900 to 29,999.995¢
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$830
Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 29800 and 29899.9900 at the end of Jun 26, 2026 at 4pm EDT?: 29,800 to 29,899.996¢
IY >999%Cliff 16Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$757
Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 30000 and 30099.9900 at the end of Jun 26, 2026 at 4pm EDT?: 30,000 to 30,099.994¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$605
Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 29500 and 29999.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 29,500 to 29,999.993¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$499
Will the Nasdaq-100 be below 19000 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 18,999.99 or below8¢
IY >999%Cliff 12Edge —RVol —Resid —$458
Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 29600 and 29699.9900 at the end of Jun 26, 2026 at 4pm EDT?: 29,600 to 29,699.998¢
IY >999%Cliff 12Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$414
Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 32500 and 33000 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 32,500 to 33,0003¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$339
Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 27000 and 27499.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 27,000 to 27,499.993¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$192
Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 30500 and 30599.9900 at the end of Jun 26, 2026 at 4pm EDT?: 30,500 to 30,599.994¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$180
Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 29000 and 29099.9900 at the end of Jun 26, 2026 at 4pm EDT?: 29,000 to 29,099.993¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$161
Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 31500 and 31999.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 31,500 to 31,999.993¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$100
Will the Nasdaq-100 be below 22400.01 after issuance and before Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 22,400 or below25¢
IY 579%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$62
Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 25249.85 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 25,249.86 or above64¢
IY 109%Cliff 2Edge —RVol 139%Resid —$52
46 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in Nasdaq-100 Close-Price Bucket Markets

From market_changes
4h agoKalshi
Will the Nasdaq-100 be below 29000 at the end of Jun 26, 2026 at 4pm EDT?: 28,999.99 or below
43¢10→43 (+33)
open →
21h agoKalshi
Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 27799.99 at the end of Jun 25, 2026 at 4pm EDT?: 27,800 or above
71¢96→71 (-25)
open →
21h agoKalshi
Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 27899.99 at the end of Jun 25, 2026 at 4pm EDT?: 27,900 or above
71¢96→71 (-25)
open →
4h agoKalshi
Will the Nasdaq-100 be below 29000 at the end of Jun 26, 2026 at 4pm EDT?: 28,999.99 or below
24¢43→24 (-19)
open →
22h agoKalshi
Will the Nasdaq-100 be below 29000 at the end of Jun 26, 2026 at 4pm EDT?: 28,999.99 or below
18¢35→18 (-17)
open →
9h agoKalshi
Will the Nasdaq-100 be below 22800.01 after issuance and before Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 22,800 or below
24¢11→24 (+13)
open →
11h agoKalshi
Will the Nasdaq-100 be below 22800.01 after issuance and before Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 22,800 or below
11¢24→11 (-13)
open →
21h agoKalshi
Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 27999.99 at the end of Jun 25, 2026 at 4pm EDT?: 28,000 or above
84¢96→84 (-12)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 25 Jun 2026 17:38:42 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXNASDAQ →

Category view

All Kalshi Financials markets. /markets/category/financials →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →