SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

Nasdaq-100 Close-Price Bucket Markets — pricing the ladder, 29 thresholds.

29 live Kalshi contracts (57 audited). Median implied probability sits at 5%. 2 contracts moved 5cents+ in the last 24h (biggest: KXNASDAQ100MAXY-26DEC31H1600-T31399.99 -7c). Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXNASDAQ.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXNASDAQ
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXNASDAQ
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXNASDAQ",
    "label": "Nasdaq-100 Close-Price Bucket Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 29,
    "volume24hSum": 5910.37,
    "hasThesisCount": 0
  },
  "termFit": null
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 09 Aug 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100+1282.0
Vol Flow$5.9K+328%
min $1.1Kmax $47.5K
Breadth0%+100.0pp
min -100%max 100%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 22:45 UTC
Aug 3past 7d · UTCAug 9 · 22:23

Live contracts

29

Median IY

5¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$5.9K

Days to catalyst

none

no scheduled catalyst

SF thesis coverage

0

Bucket count

29

thresholds fitted

Threshold ladder — 29 contracts at one resolution

Mean fit deviation 3.5pp
0%25%50%75%100%implied EV ≈ 29492.471900025249.852825030799.9931599.9933000cdfsurvivalimplied EV

Bars ordered by threshold ascending. Pink = cheapest vs hazard fit; purple = richest. Solid emerald = cumulative implied probability; dashed zinc = survival; dashed amber = implied EV.

Top markets in Nasdaq-100 Close-Price Bucket Markets

Showing top 20 of 29

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

Will the Nasdaq-100 be below 19000 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 18,999.99 or below5¢
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$5.0K
Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 32000 and 32499.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 32,000 to 32,499.993¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$361
Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 31500 and 31999.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 31,500 to 31,999.994¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$133
Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 31399.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 31,400 or above52¢
IY 234%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$111
Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 32500 and 33000 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 32,500 to 33,0004¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$100
Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 31999.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 32,000 or above41¢
IY 365%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$78
Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 33000 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 33,000.01 or above20¢
IY >999%Cliff 4Edge —RVol —Resid —$64
Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 25249.85 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 25,249.86 or above79¢
IY 67%Cliff 4Edge —RVol 184%Resid —$22
Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 31599.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 31,600 or above50¢
IY 254%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$19
Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 31199.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 31,200 or above62¢
IY 155%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$11
Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 30799.99 after issuance and before Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 30,800 or above69¢
IY 114%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$10
Will the Nasdaq-100 be below 22400.01 after issuance and before Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 22,400 or below10¢
IY >999%Cliff 9Edge —RVol —Resid —$2
Will the Nasdaq-100 be below 22600.01 after issuance and before Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 22,600 or below12¢
IY >999%Cliff 7Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 25500 and 25999.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 25,500 to 25,999.993¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 26500 and 26999.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 26,500 to 26,999.993¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 27000 and 27499.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 27,000 to 27,499.993¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 27500 and 27999.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 27,500 to 27,999.993¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 28000 and 28499.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 28,000 to 28,499.993¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 28500 and 28999.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 28,500 to 28,999.993¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 29000 and 29499.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 29,000 to 29,499.993¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
29 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in Nasdaq-100 Close-Price Bucket Markets

From market_changes
1d agoKalshi
Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 31399.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 31,400 or above
52¢59→52 (-7)
open →
19h agoKalshi
Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 33000 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 33,000.01 or above
19¢24→19 (-5)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 09 Aug 2026 22:38:42 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXNASDAQ →

Category view

All Kalshi Financials markets. /markets/category/financials →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →