SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

Nasdaq-100 Close-Price Bucket Markets — pricing the ladder, 17 thresholds.

17 live Kalshi contracts (57 audited). Median implied probability sits at 8%. Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXNASDAQ.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXNASDAQ
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXNASDAQ
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXNASDAQ",
    "label": "Nasdaq-100 Close-Price Bucket Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 17,
    "volume24hSum": 3997.29,
    "hasThesisCount": 0
  },
  "termFit": null
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 12 Oct 2026Methodology
Disagreement—
warming up — first reading at 23:30 UTC
Vol Flow$4.0K
Breadth—
warming up — first reading at 23:30 UTC
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 23:30 UTC

Live contracts

17

Median IY

8¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$4.0K

Days to catalyst

none

no scheduled catalyst

SF thesis coverage

0

Bucket count

17

thresholds fitted

Threshold ladder — 17 contracts at one resolution

Mean fit deviation 6.1pp
0%25%50%75%100%implied EV ≈ 30207.4622200.0125249.853025031599.9931999.9933000cdfsurvivalimplied EV

Bars ordered by threshold ascending. Pink = cheapest vs hazard fit; purple = richest. Solid emerald = cumulative implied probability; dashed zinc = survival; dashed amber = implied EV.

Top markets in Nasdaq-100 Close-Price Bucket Markets

Showing top 17 of 17

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 29000 and 29499.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 29,000 to 29,499.993¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$1.3K
Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 30500 and 30999.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 30,500 to 30,999.997¢
IY >999%Cliff 13Edge —RVol —Resid —$925
Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 33000 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 33,000.01 or above24¢
IY >999%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$671
Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 32000 and 32499.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 32,000 to 32,499.998¢
IY >999%Cliff 12Edge —RVol —Resid —$364
Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 32500 and 33000 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 32,500 to 33,0006¢
IY >999%Cliff 16Edge —RVol —Resid —$360
Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 31000 and 31499.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 31,000 to 31,499.999¢
IY >999%Cliff 10Edge —RVol —Resid —$178
Will the Nasdaq-100 be below 22200.01 after issuance and before Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 22,200 or below4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$113
Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 25249.85 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 25,249.86 or above91¢
IY 45%Cliff 10Edge —RVol —Resid —$58
Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 31999.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 32,000 or above61¢
IY 291%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$34
Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 31799.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 31,800 or above70¢
IY 195%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$16
Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 31500 and 31999.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 31,500 to 31,999.999¢
IY >999%Cliff 10Edge —RVol —Resid —$11
Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 31399.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 31,400 or above86¢
IY 74%Cliff 6Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 31599.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 31,600 or above72¢
IY 177%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 30000 and 30499.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 30,000 to 30,499.995¢
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 29500 and 29999.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 29,500 to 29,999.994¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will the Nasdaq-100 be below 22600.01 after issuance and before Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 22,600 or below4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will the Nasdaq-100 be below 22400.01 after issuance and before Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 22,400 or below4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
17 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 12 Oct 2026 17:08:41 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXNASDAQ →

Category view

All Kalshi Financials markets. /markets/category/financials →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →