Will the President sign between 700 and 749 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will the President sign between 700 and 749 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing January 21, 2029. This market is pricing an extremely low probability (5%) for a relatively narrow band of 700-749 executive orders over the four-year term, implying skepticism that Trump will sign exactly in this range despite his first-term pace of ~220 orders suggesting ~880 over four years.
Analysis
This market is pricing an extremely low probability (5%) for a relatively narrow band of 700-749 executive orders over the four-year term, implying skepticism that Trump will sign exactly in this range despite his first-term pace of ~220 orders suggesting ~880 over four years. The 867% implied yield on the Yes side reflects severe mispricing potential if this outcome occurs, though the thin $50 daily volume and modest $1,270 open interest indicate low liquidity that could exacerbate slippage on larger positions. With over 1,000 days to expiration, the 24 cliff risk index warrants caution around potential resolution edge cases or definitional disputes regarding what constitutes a signed executive order.
Resolution rules
If the President signs between 700 to 749 Executive Orders during his second term, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXEOTRUMPTERM-29JAN20-724 yes 100