Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.1% for the year ending in May 2026?

This market is pricing in a 99% probability that core CPI will exceed 2.1% year-over-year by May 2026, yet shows virtually no trading activity ($0 in 24h volume) with minimal open interest of just $100, suggesting extremely thin liquidity and potentially stale pricing. The extreme implied yield on the No side (13,133.7%) is a red flag indicating the market may be mispriced or abandoned, as such yields are economically unrealistic and typically signal illiquidity rather than genuine market conviction. With 53 days to resolution and the price having drifted from 94¢ to 92¢ over seven days, this appears to be a dead market where the 99¢ bid may not reflect true consensus given the lack of recent trading activity.

Resolution rules

If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.1% in the twelve months ending May 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade