Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.5% for the year ending in May 2026?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $4 open interest and $30 daily volume, making the 65¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 10¢ spread. The sharp 17¢ drop over seven days combined with a 374% implied yield on Yes suggests recent pessimism about inflation persistence, though the massive 1290% yield on No indicates the market may be pricing in tail risk rather than consensus expectations. With 53 days to expiry and core CPI data typically released mid-month, this contract faces near-term resolution uncertainty that the thin liquidity cannot adequately price.

Resolution rules

If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.5% in the twelve months ending May 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.

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Trade