Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.9% for the year ending in May 2026?

This market shows extreme mispricing with the Yes contract trading at just 6¢ despite a 8200% implied yield, suggesting severe illiquidity and potential distress selling rather than fundamental conviction. The dramatic 7-day price collapse from 42¢ to 8¢ combined with near-zero 24-hour volume ($0) and tight open interest ($157) indicates the market lacks sufficient depth to trust current pricing. With core CPI currently running around 3.2-3.3% and only 51 days to resolution, the 2.9% threshold appears reasonably likely to be exceeded, making the 6% probability implausibly low and suggesting this is a dead or abandoned market rather than an efficient price discovery mechanism.

Resolution rules

If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.9% in the twelve months ending May 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade