Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.1% for the year ending in May 2026?

This market has collapsed dramatically from 25¢ to 6¢ over seven days, now pricing in only a 6% probability that core CPI exceeds 3.1% year-over-year by May 2026—a sharp repricing likely driven by recent disinflationary data. The extreme 10,965% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the deeply out-of-the-money pricing, though the $0 24-hour volume and minimal $187 open interest signal severe illiquidity that makes this price potentially unreliable. With just 52 days to resolution and a 7¢ bid-ask spread, this market appears to be pricing in confidence that core inflation will remain subdued, but the lack of trading activity and high cliff risk (16) suggest caution in treating this as a reliable probability estimate.

Resolution rules

If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 3.1% in the twelve months ending May 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade