228-232 · Will the Republican Party win
228-232 is priced at 4¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 4¢ bid, 4¢ ask, 0¢ spread. This outcome ranks #9 of 11 inside Will the Republican Party win.
Price history
4¢ current
+2¢Contract brief
If the Republican Party has between 228-232 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
228-232
Rank
#9 of 11
Leader
Below 193 23¢
Range
2¢-23¢
Family volume
$13K
Identifier
KXRHOUSESEATS-27-230
May 28, 2026, 10:38 AM UTC · 28m ago
Implied probability
Bid
4¢
Ask
4¢
Spread
0¢
24h volume
$1K
Family rank
#9 of 11
11 outcomes · Will the Republican Party win
Closes
Feb 1, 2027
Family volume
$13K
Orderbook snapshot
4 / 4¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the Republican Party has between 228-232 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Feb 1, 2027
Identifier
KXRHOUSESEATS-27-230
Event family
Will the Republican Party win.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$13K
Outcomes
11
Highest price
Below 193 23¢
Current share
8%
Below 193
kalshi · KXRHOUSESEATS-27-193
203-207
kalshi · KXRHOUSESEATS-27-205
198-202
kalshi · KXRHOUSESEATS-27-200
193-197
kalshi · KXRHOUSESEATS-27-195
208-212
kalshi · KXRHOUSESEATS-27-210
213-217
kalshi · KXRHOUSESEATS-27-215
218-222
kalshi · KXRHOUSESEATS-27-220
223-227
kalshi · KXRHOUSESEATS-27-225
228-232
kalshi · KXRHOUSESEATS-27-230
Above 237
kalshi · KXRHOUSESEATS-27-237
233-237
kalshi · KXRHOUSESEATS-27-235
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.335
Observability
low
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.