203-207 · Will the Republican Party win
203-207 is priced at 16¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 15¢ bid, 16¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 11 inside Will the Republican Party win.
Price history
16¢ current
+4¢Contract brief
If the Republican Party has between 203-207 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
203-207
Rank
#2 of 11
Leader
Below 193 19¢
Range
2¢-19¢
Family volume
$14K
Identifier
KXRHOUSESEATS-27-205
Aug 8, 2026, 5:08 PM UTC · 25m ago
Implied probability
Bid
15¢
Ask
16¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$242
Family rank
#2 of 11
11 outcomes · Will the Republican Party win
Closes
Feb 1, 2027
Family volume
$14K
Orderbook snapshot
15 / 16¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the Republican Party has between 203-207 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Feb 1, 2027
Identifier
KXRHOUSESEATS-27-205
Event family
Will the Republican Party win.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$14K
Outcomes
11
Highest price
Below 193 19¢
Current share
2%
Below 193
kalshi · KXRHOUSESEATS-27-193
203-207
kalshi · KXRHOUSESEATS-27-205
198-202
kalshi · KXRHOUSESEATS-27-200
208-212
kalshi · KXRHOUSESEATS-27-210
193-197
kalshi · KXRHOUSESEATS-27-195
213-217
kalshi · KXRHOUSESEATS-27-215
218-222
kalshi · KXRHOUSESEATS-27-220
223-227
kalshi · KXRHOUSESEATS-27-225
228-232
kalshi · KXRHOUSESEATS-27-230
Above 237
kalshi · KXRHOUSESEATS-27-237
233-237
kalshi · KXRHOUSESEATS-27-235
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.