Will the Republican Party win 203-207 seats in the 120th Congress?
Prediction markets currently give a 14% probability that Will the Republican Party win 203-207 seats in the 120th Congress?. This contract trades at 14¢ on Kalshi, closing February 1, 2027. This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 840.6% implied yield on the Yes side versus 18.8% on the No side, suggesting the 13¢ price significantly undervalues the narrow 203-207 seat range given Republicans currently hold 218 seats and would need to lose only 11-15 seats for resolution.
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 840.6% implied yield on the Yes side versus 18.8% on the No side, suggesting the 13¢ price significantly undervalues the narrow 203-207 seat range given Republicans currently hold 218 seats and would need to lose only 11-15 seats for resolution. The 7-day decline from 15¢ to 13¢ combined with minimal 24-hour volume of $50 against $45,790 open interest indicates low liquidity and potential stale pricing, making the extreme yield figures potentially unreliable for actual execution at these levels.
Resolution rules
If the Republican Party has between 203-207 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXRHOUSESEATS-27-205 yes 100