What is the current probability for "Will the Republican Party win 193 seats in the 120th Congress?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 38¢ (38% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on February 1, 2027. 286 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will the Republican Party win 193 seats in the 120th Congress?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 217.6% and 75.0% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will the Republican Party win 193 seats in the 120th Congress?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will the Republican Party win 193 seats in the 120th Congress?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 38% probability that Will the Republican Party win 193 seats in the 120th Congress?. This contract trades at 38¢ on Kalshi, closing February 1, 2027. The market is pricing Republicans at just 38% to fall below 193 seats, implying strong confidence they'll maintain or exceed that threshold in the 120th Congress.

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38¢

Bid/Ask 37/38¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $338.17·OI $159,353.15·Closes Feb 1, 2027·286d remaining

KXRHOUSESEATS-27-193

7-day price71 snapshots · 22 regime

55¢37¢ current

Apr 832¢Apr 15

Analysis

4d ago

The market is pricing Republicans at just 38% to fall below 193 seats, implying strong confidence they'll maintain or exceed that threshold in the 120th Congress. The Yes side's 213.8% implied yield is notably elevated relative to the 73.8% No yield, suggesting asymmetric risk compensation, though the neutral regime score and modest 1¢ spread indicate balanced market sentiment. With $160k open interest but only $1.7k daily volume, liquidity is thin for a market with 291 days to expiry, and the recent 4-point rally from 33¢ warrants monitoring for whether it reflects genuine conviction or technical momentum.

Resolution rules

If the Republican Party has below 193 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 217.6%

IY (No) 75.0%

Adj IY 106%

CRI 2

EE 14.000

Overround -0.1%

▶ Full indicator table (7)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	217.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	75.0%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	106%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
EE	14.000	Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.03	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.442

Computed

4/21/2026, 11:11:12 PM

SF edge 15.0¢ yesObservability lowEvent type political

Edges (1)

NO +15¢thesis — DOGE cut federal workforce aggressively. Now those roles are needed for wartime

Has thesisHas orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 11:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXRHOUSESEATS-27-193 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Event Overround →