Below 193 · Will the Republican Party win
Below 193 is priced at 22¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 22¢ bid, 23¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 11 inside Will the Republican Party win.
Price history
22¢ current
Contract brief
If the Republican Party has below 193 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Below 193
Rank
#1 of 11
Leader
Below 193 22¢
Range
2¢-22¢
Family volume
$4K
Identifier
KXRHOUSESEATS-27-193
Jun 25, 2026, 11:08 PM UTC · 3m ago
Implied probability
Bid
22¢
Ask
23¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$1K
Family rank
#1 of 11
11 outcomes · Will the Republican Party win
Closes
Feb 1, 2027
Family volume
$4K
Orderbook snapshot
22 / 23¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the Republican Party has below 193 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Feb 1, 2027
Identifier
KXRHOUSESEATS-27-193
Event family
Will the Republican Party win.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$4K
Outcomes
11
Highest price
Below 193 22¢
Current share
28%
Below 193
kalshi · KXRHOUSESEATS-27-193
198-202
kalshi · KXRHOUSESEATS-27-200
203-207
kalshi · KXRHOUSESEATS-27-205
193-197
kalshi · KXRHOUSESEATS-27-195
208-212
kalshi · KXRHOUSESEATS-27-210
218-222
kalshi · KXRHOUSESEATS-27-220
223-227
kalshi · KXRHOUSESEATS-27-225
213-217
kalshi · KXRHOUSESEATS-27-215
Above 237
kalshi · KXRHOUSESEATS-27-237
228-232
kalshi · KXRHOUSESEATS-27-230
233-237
kalshi · KXRHOUSESEATS-27-235
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.442
Observability
low
Event type
political
Full indicator table
Odds pages
Related prediction questions
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity
How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity
Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
US Midterm Elections 2026 Prediction Markets: Trading the Battle for Congress
A deep‑dive guide for prediction market traders on the 2026 US midterm elections: House and Senate control odds, key races, Trump’s impact, economic and approval scenarios, polling accuracy, and data‑driven trading strategies.
Implied Yield vs Raw Probability: Why Bond-Adjacent Prediction Markets Need a Different Lens
Why fixed-income-adjacent prediction-market contracts need to be priced in implied yield, not raw probability, with two real Kalshi Fed-decision contracts as a case study.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 22% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.