Will the Republican Party win 193 seats in the 120th Congress
Leader sits at 22% across 10 bound outcomes, runner-up at 13%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Below 193
Outcomes
10
winner-take-all
Runner-up
13¢
198-202
Spread
9pp
contested
24h volume
$4K
modest
Closes
Feb 1, 2027
221 days
Venue
Kalshi
10 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the Republican Party win
Will the Republican Party win 208-212 seats in the 120th Congress?: 208-212
KXRHOUSESEATS-27-210
Will the Republican Party win 193 seats in the 120th Congress?: Below 193
KXRHOUSESEATS-27-193
Will the Republican Party win 218-222 seats in the 120th Congress?: 218-222
KXRHOUSESEATS-27-220
Will the Republican Party win 223-227 seats in the 120th Congress?: 223-227
KXRHOUSESEATS-27-225
Will the Republican Party win 193-197 seats in the 120th Congress?: 193-197
KXRHOUSESEATS-27-195
Will the Republican Party win 198-202 seats in the 120th Congress?: 198-202
KXRHOUSESEATS-27-200
Will the Republican Party win 213-217 seats in the 120th Congress?: 213-217
KXRHOUSESEATS-27-215
Will the Republican Party win 237 seats in the 120th Congress?: Above 237
KXRHOUSESEATS-27-237
Will the Republican Party win 228-232 seats in the 120th Congress?: 228-232
KXRHOUSESEATS-27-230
Will the Republican Party win 203-207 seats in the 120th Congress?: 203-207
KXRHOUSESEATS-27-205
Analysis
This probability indicates a 31% chance Republicans will win exactly 193 seats in the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The outcome depends on swing district dynamics and overall national sentiment toward the party in power. Current market pricing suggests the most likely outcome clusters elsewhere—markets show higher odds for Republicans winning the House overall (19¢) but at different seat counts, indicating uncertainty about the final distribution. The November 2026 election will provide the definitive result. Key drivers include economic conditions heading into the midterms, approval ratings, and turnout patterns in competitive districts. The closest comparison on these markets shows the 223-227 seat range trading at lower odds, suggesting markets view 193 seats as a relatively underwhelming outcome for Republicans compared to historical norms for opposition parties in midterms.
- ›The overall Republican House win probability (19¢) is higher than this specific 193-seat outcome, indicating markets expect larger Republican gains if they win control
- ›The 223-227 seat contract trades significantly lower (3¢), suggesting markets view 193 as a below-expected seat count compared to other possible Republican outcomes
- ›Historical midterm patterns show the party opposing the sitting president often gains 20-40+ House seats, making 193 a relatively modest gain depending on the starting baseline
- ›This probability depends heavily on swing district performance in 2026, which remains sensitive to economic data, legislative accomplishments, and approval metrics
- ›Current Republican Senate odds at 50¢ indicate separate uncertainty about upper chamber performance, suggesting House outcomes are driven by distinct regional factors
Recently closed in election 2026
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
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Related reading
Democrats Firming as Favorites to Hold House in 2026
Democrats have strengthened their position to retain control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterms, with contracts rising to 78¢. This shift comes amid strong fundraising and favorable special election results, challenging the historical midterm penalty for the president's party. The Senate race remains a toss-up, with Republicans at 57¢ to take control.
Democratic House Control Strongly Favored at 78¢
Traders are pricing in a 78% probability that Democrats will win control of the House in 2026, while the Senate remains a toss-up with Republicans at 57¢. This balance of power scenario is a key input for midterm election trading strategies.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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