Will the Republican Party win 193 seats in the 120th Congress
Leader sits at 27% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 16%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Below 193
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
16¢
198-202
Spread
11pp
contested
24h volume
$28K
liquid
Closes
Feb 1, 2027
113 days
Venue
Kalshi
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the Republican Party win
Will the Republican Party win 213-217 seats in the 120th Congress?: 213-217
KXRHOUSESEATS-27-215
Will the Republican Party win 193 seats in the 120th Congress?: Below 193
KXRHOUSESEATS-27-193
Will the Republican Party win 218-222 seats in the 120th Congress?: 218-222
KXRHOUSESEATS-27-220
Will the Republican Party win 208-212 seats in the 120th Congress?: 208-212
KXRHOUSESEATS-27-210
Will the Republican Party win 223-227 seats in the 120th Congress?: 223-227
KXRHOUSESEATS-27-225
Will the Republican Party win 203-207 seats in the 120th Congress?: 203-207
KXRHOUSESEATS-27-205
Will the Republican Party win 198-202 seats in the 120th Congress?: 198-202
KXRHOUSESEATS-27-200
Will the Republican Party win 193-197 seats in the 120th Congress?: 193-197
KXRHOUSESEATS-27-195
Analysis
This contracts the probability that Republicans will secure fewer than 193 House seats in the 120th Congress (2025-2027), currently priced at 22%, indicating markets view a sub-193 Republican delegation as unlikely but plausible. The current distribution suggests traders expect Republicans to win between 193 and 212 seats, with meaningful probability mass across multiple ranges. The 22% probability for below-193 seats reflects expectations that Republicans will maintain or modestly grow their current House position. Key drivers include turnout patterns in competitive districts, redistricting effects that persist through this cycle, and the political environment closer to the election. The primary catalyst resolving this outcome is the November 2026 midterm elections, when all 435 House seats will be contested and final seat totals determined.
- ›The probability reflects expectations of a Republican-held House, as the combined probability of all outcomes at or above 193 seats appears substantially higher than 22%
- ›Current House composition and redistricting advantages set baseline expectations; achieving fewer than 193 seats would represent a net loss of 25+ seats from current Republican totals
- ›Economic conditions, approval ratings, and legislative accomplishments in the 20 months before November 2026 will significantly influence swing-district outcomes
- ›Special elections and resignation-triggered races between now and November 2026 could shift baseline expectations if they signal broader momentum shifts
- ›Historical patterns show the party holding the presidency typically loses House seats in midterm elections, creating structural headwinds for Republicans if they hold the White House through 2026
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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