What is the current probability for "Will the Republican Party win 218-222 seats in the 120th Congress?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 4¢ (4% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on February 1, 2027. 286 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will the Republican Party win 218-222 seats in the 120th Congress?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 3066.3% and 5.3% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Will the Republican Party win 218-222 seats in the 120th Congress?

Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will the Republican Party win 218-222 seats in the 120th Congress?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing February 1, 2027. This market is pricing an extremely narrow Republican House outcome (218-222 seats) at just 5¢, implying only a 5% probability despite 291 days to expiration.

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4¢

Bid/Ask 4/5¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $0·OI $49,948.14·Closes Feb 1, 2027·286d remaining

KXRHOUSESEATS-27-220

7-day price9 snapshots · 17 regime

6¢4¢ current

Apr 94¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

This market is pricing an extremely narrow Republican House outcome (218-222 seats) at just 5¢, implying only a 5% probability despite 291 days to expiration. The astronomical 2386% implied yield on the Yes side and minimal $209.51 daily volume suggest this is either severely mispriced or reflects genuine market skepticism about such a tight range materializing. With a 19 Cliff Risk Index and the price having risen just 1¢ over seven days, there's limited conviction either direction, though the massive yield differential indicates sophisticated traders see significant asymmetric value if Republicans land precisely in this narrow band.

Resolution rules

If the Republican Party has between 218-222 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 3066.3%

IY (No) 5.3%

Adj IY 1150%

CRI 24

EE 3.000

Overround -0.1%

▶ Full indicator table (7)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	3066.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	5.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1150%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	24	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
EE	3.000	Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.25	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.335

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 10:41:55 PM

SF edge 3.0¢ noObservability lowEvent type political

Edges (1)

NO +3¢thesis — DOGE cut federal workforce aggressively. Now those roles are needed for wartime

Has thesisHas orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 10:38:18 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXRHOUSESEATS-27-220 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Event Overround →