Will the S&P 500 be between 8400 and 8599.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?
This contract is priced at 4¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 4¢ bid, 5¢ ask, 1¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
16
Family volume
$44K
Best sibling
7,000 to 7,199.99 6¢
Ticker
KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B8500
Market snapshot
8,400 to 8,599.99 in market context.
This page tracks the Kalshi contract for Will the S&P 500 be between 8400 and 8599.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?. The displayed quote is 4¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports 24h volume of $1K. In the Will the S&P 500 family, this outcome ranks #6 of 16 by current quote across 16 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 11, 2026, 7:23 PM UTC.
Outcome
8,400 to 8,599.99
Family rank
#6 of 16
Venue
Kalshi
Current quote
4¢
Quote source
Latest venue quote
Timing
Listed until Dec 31, 2026
24h volume
$1K
Family context
16 outcomes · Will the S&P 500
Quote range
1¢-12¢
Family leader
7,800 to 7,999.99 12¢
Last updated
May 11, 2026, 7:23 PM UTC · 5m ago
Venue identifier: KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B8500. Family volume: $44K.
Price history
4¢ current
+2¢Orderbook snapshot
4 / 5¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
If the S&P 500 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 8400-8599.99, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B8500
Event family
Will the S&P 500.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$44K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
7,800 to 7,999.99 12¢
Current share
2%
8,400 to 8,599.99
kalshi · KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B8500
7,000 to 7,199.99
kalshi · KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B7100
7,800 to 7,999.99
kalshi · KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B7900
8,600 to 8,799.99
kalshi · KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B8700
5,200 to 5,399.99
kalshi · KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B5300
6,400 to 6,599.99
kalshi · KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B6500
8,000 to 8,199.99
kalshi · KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B8100
6,800 to 6,999.99
kalshi · KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B6900
5,800 to 5,999.99
kalshi · KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B5900
8,200 to 8,399.99
kalshi · KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B8300
5,600 to 5,799.99
kalshi · KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B5700
6,600 to 6,799.99
kalshi · KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B6700
6,200 to 6,399.99
kalshi · KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B6300
7,200 to 7,399.99
kalshi · KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B7300
4,800 to 4,999.99
kalshi · KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B4900
3,999.99 or below
kalshi · KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-T4000
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
taker
Score
0.636
Observability
direct
Event type
financial
Full indicator table
Odds pages
Related prediction questions
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity
How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity
Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
Maker / Taker Regime in Prediction Markets: How to Read the Orderbook State
Three regime states (maker-dominated, taker-dominated, neutral) and how to read which one a Kalshi or Polymarket contract is in. Strategy follows regime, not thesis.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 4% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.