Will the S&P 500 be below 4000 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?
This contract is priced at 2¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 2¢ bid, 3¢ ask, 1¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
16
Family volume
$44K
Best sibling
7,000 to 7,199.99 6¢
Ticker
KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-T4000
Market snapshot
3,999.99 or below in market context.
This page tracks the Kalshi contract for Will the S&P 500 be below 4000 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?. The displayed quote is 2¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports 24h volume of $1K. In the Will the S&P 500 family, this outcome ranks #10 of 16 by current quote across 16 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 11, 2026, 7:29 PM UTC.
Outcome
3,999.99 or below
Family rank
#10 of 16
Venue
Kalshi
Current quote
2¢
Quote source
Latest venue quote
Timing
Listed until Dec 31, 2026
24h volume
$1K
Family context
16 outcomes · Will the S&P 500
Quote range
1¢-12¢
Family leader
7,800 to 7,999.99 12¢
Last updated
May 11, 2026, 7:29 PM UTC · 0m ago
Venue identifier: KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-T4000. Family volume: $44K.
Price history
2¢ current
Orderbook snapshot
2 / 3¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
If the S&P 500 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is below 4000, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-T4000
Event family
Will the S&P 500.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$44K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
7,800 to 7,999.99 12¢
Current share
2%
3,999.99 or below
kalshi · KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-T4000
7,000 to 7,199.99
kalshi · KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B7100
7,800 to 7,999.99
kalshi · KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B7900
8,600 to 8,799.99
kalshi · KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B8700
5,200 to 5,399.99
kalshi · KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B5300
6,400 to 6,599.99
kalshi · KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B6500
8,000 to 8,199.99
kalshi · KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B8100
6,800 to 6,999.99
kalshi · KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B6900
5,800 to 5,999.99
kalshi · KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B5900
8,200 to 8,399.99
kalshi · KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B8300
5,600 to 5,799.99
kalshi · KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B5700
6,600 to 6,799.99
kalshi · KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B6700
6,200 to 6,399.99
kalshi · KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B6300
7,200 to 7,399.99
kalshi · KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B7300
4,800 to 4,999.99
kalshi · KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B4900
8,400 to 8,599.99
kalshi · KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B8500
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.442
Observability
low
Event type
financial
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 2% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.