Will the S&P 500 be between 6400 and 6599.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will the S&P 500 be between 6400 and 6599.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market exhibits extreme mispricing with a 4560% annualized yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 4¢ price dramatically undervalues a relatively narrow 200-point band (roughly 3% of current S&P 500 levels) over a 259-day horizon.
Analysis
This market exhibits extreme mispricing with a 4560% annualized yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 4¢ price dramatically undervalues a relatively narrow 200-point band (roughly 3% of current S&P 500 levels) over a 259-day horizon. The massive yield asymmetry—No side yields only 4.4%—combined with minimal 24-hour volume of $1,720 and a moderate Cliff Risk Index of 32 indicates thin liquidity and potential for sharp repricing if broader market conditions shift. The flat 7-day price action at 3¢ despite the extreme yield suggests this mispricing may reflect genuine skepticism about mean-reversion or structural market views rather than a simple arbitrage opportunity.
Resolution rules
If the S&P 500 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 6400-6599.99, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Regime
Trade
sf trade KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B6500 yes 100