Will the S&P 500 be between 6600 and 6799.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will the S&P 500 be between 6600 and 6799.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market exhibits extreme mispricing with a 4559% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 4¢ price dramatically undervalues a relatively narrow 200-point band (roughly 3% of current S&P 500 levels) across a 259-day window.
Analysis
This market exhibits extreme mispricing with a 4559% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 4¢ price dramatically undervalues a relatively narrow 200-point band (roughly 3% of current S&P 500 levels) across a 259-day window. The massive yield asymmetry—Yes at 4559% versus No at 4.4%—combined with modest $1,790 daily volume and $59k open interest indicates thin liquidity that may be distorting prices, while the 32 Cliff Risk Index flags potential sharp repricing near expiration. The flat 7-day price action at 3¢ suggests limited recent conviction despite the extreme yield differential, warranting caution about whether this reflects genuine mispricing or structural illiquidity.
Resolution rules
If the S&P 500 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 6600-6799.99, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Regime
Trade
sf trade KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B6700 yes 100