What is the current probability for "Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 12¢ (12% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on December 31, 2026. 241 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1109.3% and 20.6% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

PolymarketDec 31, 2026241 days left

Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

This contract is priced at 12¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 10¢ bid, 13¢ ask, 3¢ spread.

Open on Polymarket JSON + orderbook Enter terminal

Implied probability

12¢

$74K volume

$16K liquidity

0% of event volume

Event outcomes

Family volume

$186.4M

Best sibling

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April 0¢

Ticker

0x91467d5c…2d06

Price history

12¢ current

−1¢

Apr 8, 2026May 2, 2026

Orderbook snapshot

10 / 13¢

Polymarket

3¢ spread

BidSize

10¢5

9¢5

8¢5

7¢35

6¢153

5¢296

4¢636

3¢1.9K

AskSize

13¢319

14¢380

17¢17

18¢197

19¢450

20¢30

21¢20

22¢50

Contract terms

Resolution, venue, and identifiers.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location. Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

Dec 31, 2026

Identifier

0x91467d5c…2d06

Cross-venue match

Similar contract on kalshi at 7¢, +5¢ versus this page.

View counterpart

Event family

Iran / Hormuz crisis.

This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.

Total volume

$186.4M

Outcomes