What is the current probability for "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 0¢ (0% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on April 30, 2026.

Where can I trade "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

PolymarketApr 30, 2026

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

This contract is priced at 0¢ midpoint on Polymarket. Current book: 0¢ bid, 0¢ ask, 0¢ spread.

Open on Polymarket JSON + orderbook Enter terminal

Implied probability

0¢

$35.9M volume

$309K liquidity

19% of event volume

Event outcomes

Family volume

$187.4M

Best sibling

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30 6¢

Ticker

0x924a2942…4669

Price history

0¢ current

−48¢

Apr 8, 2026Apr 28, 2026

Orderbook snapshot

0 / 0¢

Polymarket

0¢ spread

BidSize

0¢54K

AskSize

0¢7.9K

0¢23K

0¢209K

100¢6

100¢4.8K

100¢1.1K

100¢6

Contract terms

Resolution, venue, and identifiers.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

Apr 30, 2026

Identifier

0x924a2942…4669

Event family

Iran / Hormuz crisis.

This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.

Total volume

$187.4M

Outcomes

Highest price