What is the current probability for "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 20¢ (20% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on May 31, 2026. 27 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 5332.4% and 333.3% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

PolymarketMay 31, 202627 days left

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

This contract is priced at 20¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 20¢ bid, 21¢ ask, 1¢ spread.

Open on Polymarket JSON + orderbook Enter terminal

Implied probability

20¢

$5.2M volume

$461K liquidity

3% of event volume

Event outcomes

Family volume

$187.4M

Best sibling

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April 0¢

Ticker

0x518a5b03…333c

Price history

20¢ current

−21¢

Apr 23, 2026May 3, 2026

Orderbook snapshot

20 / 21¢

Polymarket

1¢ spread

BidSize

20¢1.2K

19¢101K

18¢257K

17¢125K

16¢9.1K

15¢10.0K

14¢4.4K

13¢19K

AskSize

21¢27K

22¢62K

23¢34K

24¢7.1K

25¢1.7K

26¢1.3K

27¢64

28¢1.5K

Contract terms

Resolution, venue, and identifiers.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

May 31, 2026

Identifier

0x518a5b03…333c

Event family

Iran / Hormuz crisis.

This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.

Total volume

$187.4M

Outcomes