Will the White House Press Secretary say American Dream at her next press briefing?

Prediction markets currently give a 19% probability that Will the White House Press Secretary say American Dream at her next press briefing?. This contract trades at 19¢ on Kalshi, closing May 7, 2026. This micro-liquidity market shows extreme yield asymmetry with Yes contracts offering an implausible 13,520% implied yield versus 302% for No, reflecting the $6.44 total open interest and razor-thin $5 daily volume.

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19¢
Bid/Ask 12/14¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $121.37·OI $128.38·Closes May 7, 2026·15d remaining
KXSECPRESSMENTION-26MAY07-AMER
7-day price15 snapshots · 4 regime
13¢12¢ current
Apr 162¢Apr 22

Analysis

2d ago

This micro-liquidity market shows extreme yield asymmetry with Yes contracts offering an implausible 13,520% implied yield versus 302% for No, reflecting the $6.44 total open interest and razor-thin $5 daily volume. The 12¢ spread is notably wide relative to the 25¢ midpoint, and the recent price surge from 2¢ to 13¢ over seven days suggests either informed positioning or speculative momentum ahead of the 18-day expiry. With a Cliff Risk Index of 7, this market carries elevated binary resolution risk and should be treated as highly illiquid despite the headline yield figures.

Resolution rules

If the White House Press Secretary says American Dream at the next Press Briefing by the White House Press Secretary (does not include gaggles), then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 17486.6%
IY (No) 325.2%
Adj IY 14572%
CRI 7
RV 1488%
VR 0.74
▶ Full indicator table (9)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)17486.6%
IY (No)325.2%
Adj IY14572%
CRI7
RV1488%
VR0.74
IAR0.4/h
Overround9.3%
LAS0.17

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Computed
4/22/2026, 6:42:44 AM
Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/22/2026, 6:38:23 AM

Trade

View on kalshisf trade KXSECPRESSMENTION-26MAY07-AMER yes 100

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