Will the White House Press Secretary say Radical Left at her next press briefing
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 15% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
15%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$126
1 contracts
Closes
Jan 21, 2029
960 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will No new person be the next White House Press Secretary of United States
Analysis
This prediction asks whether White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt will use the phrase 'Radical Left' during her next scheduled press briefing. The 29% probability suggests traders view this as unlikely but not implausible. The baseline rate depends on how frequently Leavitt uses this specific phrase at briefings—a function of both her typical communication style and the news cycle. Resolution hinges on whether a briefing occurs soon and what topics dominate discussion; economic or foreign policy crises might reduce rhetorical focus on partisan framing, while domestic political disputes could increase it. The related markets show significant uncertainty around briefing frequency in May and potential staff changes. The single biggest catalyst is the scheduling and occurrence of the next televised briefing, where the resolution will be determined by direct observation of her remarks.
- ›Karoline Leavitt's documented frequency of using 'Radical Left' or similar phrases in previous public statements and briefings
- ›Whether a White House press briefing is scheduled and conducted within the relevant timeframe
- ›Current news cycle priorities—foreign policy, economic data, or domestic political conflict would differentially affect topic selection
- ›The specificity of phrase matching—whether 'Radical Left' must appear verbatim or functionally equivalent language counts
- ›Cross-venue disagreement (32% Kalshi vs. 28% Polymarket) suggests different trader bases weight the phrase's likelihood differently
What moved the line
- Jun 3No new person↓10pp25→15¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 6No new person↑6pp16→22¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 7No new person↑6pp22→28¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 1No new person↓3pp28→25¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (15% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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