Will the White House Press Secretary say Illegal Alien at her next press briefing?
Prediction markets currently give a 58% probability that Will the White House Press Secretary say Illegal Alien at her next press briefing?. This contract trades at 58¢ on Kalshi, closing May 7, 2026. This micro-liquidity market shows extreme pricing distortion with a 34¢ spread and only $4 open interest, making the 10031% implied yield on the Yes side largely theoretical rather than actionable.
Analysis
This micro-liquidity market shows extreme pricing distortion with a 34¢ spread and only $4 open interest, making the 10031% implied yield on the Yes side largely theoretical rather than actionable. The 7-day price surge from 2¢ to 15¢ (650% move) combined with 2494% realized volatility suggests recent information arrival (0.9/h) has shifted sentiment, though the cliff risk index of 6 indicates binary event risk remains high with just 21 days to resolution. The neutral regime and thin volume make this unsuitable for serious capital allocation despite the headline yield figures.
Resolution rules
If the White House Press Secretary says Illegal Alien at the next Press Briefing by the White House Press Secretary (does not include gaggles), then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSECPRESSMENTION-26MAY07-ILLE yes 100