Will there be more than 275 tornadoes in April?
Prediction markets currently give a 60% probability that Will there be more than 275 tornadoes in April?. This contract trades at 60¢ on Kalshi, closing May 1, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 12¢ price implying only a 12% probability of exceeding 275 tornadoes in April, yet the Yes position offers a staggering 17,340% implied yield—a massive red flag suggesting the market is severely underpricing the event likelihood or facing liquidity constraints.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with a 12¢ price implying only a 12% probability of exceeding 275 tornadoes in April, yet the Yes position offers a staggering 17,340% implied yield—a massive red flag suggesting the market is severely underpricing the event likelihood or facing liquidity constraints. The dramatic 7-day price collapse from 33¢ to 13¢ combined with thin $4,500 open interest and modest $1,781 daily volume indicates low liquidity and potential manipulation, while the cliff risk index of 7 suggests significant tail risk near the May 1st expiration in just 14 days. Historical April tornado averages typically exceed 275, making this 12% probability suspect and potentially exploitable for informed traders, though the extreme yield should be treated cautiously given the illiquid market structure.
Resolution rules
If the preliminary number of tornadoes in Apr is above 275 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTORNADO-26APR-275 yes 100