Will Trump say "Mount Trump" before Jul 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will Trump say "Mount Trump" before Jul 1, 2026?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing July 1, 2026. This market exhibits extreme illiquidity with only $1 in 24-hour volume and $1 open interest, making the 94¢ price potentially unreliable despite the high implied probability.
Analysis
This market exhibits extreme illiquidity with only $1 in 24-hour volume and $1 open interest, making the 94¢ price potentially unreliable despite the high implied probability. The 85¢ bid-ask spread and astronomical 4345% implied yield on the Yes side suggest the market lacks sufficient trading activity to establish a fair price, with the high Cliff Risk Index of 9 indicating significant tail risk near expiration. The price has surged from 2¢ to 94¢ over seven days, likely reflecting minimal trading volume rather than genuine probability shifts, so this should be treated as a highly speculative micro-market rather than a reliable prediction.
Resolution rules
If Mount Trump, or a plural or possessive form of Mount Trump, is stated by Donald Trump after April 1, 2026 at 12:00pm ET and before Jul 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTRUMPSAYTRUMP-26JUL01-MOUN yes 100