SimpleFunctions

University of Texas at Austin · KXCOLLEGEDROP-27

University of Texas at Austin is priced at 96¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 23¢ bid, 29¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #8 of 11 inside KXCOLLEGEDROP-27.

Price history

96¢ current

+94¢
0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢
May 14, 2026May 24, 2026

Contract brief

If University of Texas at Austin has a lower ranking in the first U.S. News & World Report Best National University Rankings released after Issuance than its ranking as of Issuance, the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

University of Texas at Austin

Rank

#8 of 11

Leader

Yale 54¢

Range

18¢-54¢

Family volume

$19

Identifier

KXCOLLEGEDROP-27-UTA

May 25, 2026, 1:38 AM UTC · 7m ago

Implied probability

96¢
Latest venue quote
May 25, 2026, 1:38 AM UTC · 7m ago

Bid

23¢

Ask

29¢

Spread

24h volume

$14

Family rank

#8 of 11

11 outcomes · KXCOLLEGEDROP-27

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

Family volume

$19

Orderbook snapshot

23 / 29¢

Kalshi
6¢ spread
BidSize
23¢9
22¢501
16¢100
9¢2
6¢200
AskSize
29¢751
36¢100
43¢50
93¢247
94¢5.0K

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If University of Texas at Austin has a lower ranking in the first U.S. News & World Report Best National University Rankings released after Issuance than its ranking as of Issuance, the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

Identifier

KXCOLLEGEDROP-27-UTA

SF Signal
SF Index
275.77
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

551.5%

IY (No)

49.2%

Adj IY

276%

CRI

3

Overround

2.5%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

551.5%
49.2%
Adj IY
276%
3
Overround
2.5%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.