Will Caltech drop in national university rankings
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 32% across 11 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
32%
11 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$165
11 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
187 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
11 clusters across 11 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Yale drop in national university rankings
Will Yale drop in national university rankings?: Yale
KXCOLLEGEDROP-27-YAL
Cluster 2
Will Caltech drop in national university rankings
Will Caltech drop in national university rankings?: Caltech
KXCOLLEGEDROP-27-CAL
Cluster 3
Will Columbia drop in national university rankings
Will Columbia drop in national university rankings?: Columbia
KXCOLLEGEDROP-27-COL
Cluster 4
Will UCLA drop in national university rankings
Will UCLA drop in national university rankings?: UCLA
KXCOLLEGEDROP-27-UCL
Cluster 5
Will Notre Dame drop in national university rankings
Will Notre Dame drop in national university rankings?: Notre Dame
KXCOLLEGEDROP-27-NOT
Cluster 6
Will University of Texas at Austin drop in national university rankings
Cluster 7
Will Georgia Tech drop in national university rankings
Will Georgia Tech drop in national university rankings?: Georgia Tech
KXCOLLEGEDROP-27-GT
Cluster 8
Will Stanford drop in national university rankings
Will Stanford drop in national university rankings?: Stanford
KXCOLLEGEDROP-27-STA
Cluster 9
Will MIT drop in national university rankings
Will MIT drop in national university rankings?: MIT
KXCOLLEGEDROP-27-MIT
Cluster 10
Will Harvard drop in national university rankings
Will Harvard drop in national university rankings?: Harvard
KXCOLLEGEDROP-27-HAR
Cluster 11
Will Princeton drop in national university rankings
Will Princeton drop in national university rankings?: Princeton
KXCOLLEGEDROP-27-PRI
Analysis
This probability indicates a 32% chance that Caltech will decline in its national university ranking in the next evaluation period. University rankings are determined by factors including research output, faculty prestige, student selectivity, graduation rates, and peer assessments. Caltech's ranking could drop due to changes in research productivity, faculty departures, shifts in applicant quality, or methodological changes by ranking organizations like U.S. News or QS. The main driver of current uncertainty is that ranking methodologies evolve annually and institutional metrics fluctuate. The most significant catalyst will be the release of the next major ranking update, typically occurring in late summer or fall. Comparatively, peer elite institutions show similar or slightly higher drop probabilities, suggesting market participants view ranking changes as moderately risky events even for top-tier universities. Historical context matters: Caltech has maintained relatively stable rankings in recent years, which may support the 32% probability reflecting genuine but not dominant downside risk.
- ›Research productivity metrics and citation indices for Caltech faculty in the 2024-2025 academic year will directly influence rankings
- ›Changes to ranking methodologies by major organizations (U.S. News, QS, Times Higher Education) could systematically alter Caltech's relative position
- ›Faculty retention and departures, particularly in high-impact research areas, affect both research output metrics and peer reputation scores
- ›Caltech's acceptance rate and admitted student test score distributions relative to peer institutions may shift due to application volume changes
- ›Release of official 2026-2027 national university rankings will provide definitive resolution, typically occurring August-September 2026
What moved the line
- Jun 21Columbia↑3pp38→41¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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