Will US building permits for March 2026 be above 1.500M?
Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Will US building permits for March 2026 be above 1.500M?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Kalshi, closing May 5, 2026. This market is pricing in an extremely low 10% probability for permits exceeding 1.5M, yet the implied yield on the Yes side reaches an extraordinary 21,022%—a massive disconnect suggesting severe illiquidity rather than genuine conviction.
Analysis
This market is pricing in an extremely low 10% probability for permits exceeding 1.5M, yet the implied yield on the Yes side reaches an extraordinary 21,022%—a massive disconnect suggesting severe illiquidity rather than genuine conviction. With only $115 in open interest, zero 24-hour volume, and a 6-cent spread, the market lacks depth to support these extreme yield calculations, making the price unreliable as a probability estimate. The high Cliff Risk Index of 9 combined with the approaching 5/5/2026 expiry in just 16 days indicates this thin market could experience sharp repricing once actual March permit data approaches release.
Resolution rules
If the value of US building permits (total units) for March 2026 is above 1.500M (SAAR), then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBUILDPERMS-26APR17-T1.500 yes 100