Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Question 1

What is the current probability for "Will US building permits for March 2026 be above 1.250M?"?

Accepted Answer

This prediction market is currently priced at 95¢ (95% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 5, 2026. 13 days remaining.

Question 2

What is the implied yield on "Will US building permits for March 2026 be above 1.250M?"?

Accepted Answer

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 209.5% and 36972.3% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Question 3

Where can I trade "Will US building permits for March 2026 be above 1.250M?"?

Accepted Answer

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	209.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	36972.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	18486%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	13	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	1.3%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Will US building permits for March 2026 be above 1.250M?

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