Will US building permits for March 2026 be above 1.300M?
Prediction markets currently give a 86% probability that Will US building permits for March 2026 be above 1.300M?. This contract trades at 86¢ on Kalshi, closing May 5, 2026. This market has already resolved or is resolving imminently (closes 4/17/2026 with 0 days remaining), explaining the extreme 90% probability and astronomical 100000% risk-adjusted yield as the outcome becomes certain.
Analysis
This market has already resolved or is resolving imminently (closes 4/17/2026 with 0 days remaining), explaining the extreme 90% probability and astronomical 100000% risk-adjusted yield as the outcome becomes certain. The dramatic 7-day price surge from 50¢ to 89¢ combined with the 1458% realized volatility and cliff risk index of 8 suggests the actual March 2026 building permit data was released recently and came in above the 1.300M threshold, though the thin $52.44 daily volume indicates minimal remaining trading interest. The 1¢ spread and high information arrival rate (1.9/h) reflect final-stage market mechanics rather than genuine uncertainty.
Resolution rules
If the value of US building permits (total units) for March 2026 is above 1.300M (SAAR), then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBUILDPERMS-26APR17-T1.300 yes 100