Will US building permits for March 2026 be above 1.350M?
Prediction markets currently give a 33% probability that Will US building permits for March 2026 be above 1.350M?. This contract trades at 33¢ on Kalshi, closing May 5, 2026. This market has effectively expired with zero days to close on 4/17/2026, yet shows extreme technical distress signals including a 3895% realized volatility and 100,000% risk-adjusted yield, suggesting either a data error or a market in severe dysfunction.
Analysis
This market has effectively expired with zero days to close on 4/17/2026, yet shows extreme technical distress signals including a 3895% realized volatility and 100,000% risk-adjusted yield, suggesting either a data error or a market in severe dysfunction. The price has nearly doubled from 17¢ to 32¢ over seven days on minimal liquidity ($2,679.65 open interest, $20.28 daily volume), indicating thin order books vulnerable to manipulation or data feed issues. The 32% probability pricing appears disconnected from fundamental forecasting given the imminent resolution date and should be treated with extreme caution until venue status is verified.
Resolution rules
If the value of US building permits (total units) for March 2026 is above 1.350M (SAAR), then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBUILDPERMS-26APR17-T1.350 yes 100