Will US existing home sales for April 2026 be above 4.00M?
Prediction markets currently give a 23% probability that Will US existing home sales for April 2026 be above 4.00M?. This contract trades at 23¢ on Kalshi, closing May 11, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $500 open interest, making the 9150% implied yield on the Yes side largely theoretical and unreliable for actual trading.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $500 open interest, making the 9150% implied yield on the Yes side largely theoretical and unreliable for actual trading. The price has recovered sharply from 14¢ to 23¢ over seven days, suggesting recent conviction among the sparse traders, though the wide 7¢ spread and high Cliff Risk Index of 6 indicate significant uncertainty near resolution in 25 days. At current pricing, the market is heavily discounting the probability of April 2026 existing home sales exceeding 4.00M units, which would require a substantial recovery from recent historical levels around 3.8-3.9M.
Resolution rules
If US existing home sales for April 2026 (seasonally adjusted annual rate, millions of homes) is above 4.00M, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXEHSALES-26MAY11-T4.00 yes 100