Will US personal spending MoM for March 2026 be above 0.2%?
Prediction markets currently give a 78% probability that Will US personal spending MoM for March 2026 be above 0.2%?. This contract trades at 78¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity and pricing dysfunction with zero volume and open interest despite a substantial 8¢ spread, suggesting no active traders are willing to transact at current levels.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity and pricing dysfunction with zero volume and open interest despite a substantial 8¢ spread, suggesting no active traders are willing to transact at current levels. The Yes contract's implied yield of 1214% is extraordinarily high relative to the 14-day time horizon, indicating the 0¢ price is likely a stale or erroneous quote rather than a genuine market consensus. The recent 58¢ to 69¢ price movement over seven days suggests the market may have traded more actively earlier, but current conditions make this contract unsuitable for real trading.
Resolution rules
If US personal spending MoM for March 2026 is above 0.2, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUSPSPEND-26APR30-T0.2 yes 100