Will US personal spending MoM for March 2026 be above 0.3%?
Prediction markets currently give a 75% probability that Will US personal spending MoM for March 2026 be above 0.3%?. This contract trades at 75¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 8¢ spread, suggesting virtually no real trading activity and unreliable pricing.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 8¢ spread, suggesting virtually no real trading activity and unreliable pricing. The 0¢ bid implies near-zero probability for above-0.3% spending growth, yet the implied yield on the Yes side reaches 1797.8%, which is extraordinarily high and likely reflects the illiquidity premium rather than genuine market conviction. With only 14 days to expiry and a recent price jump from 47¢ to 60¢, this appears to be a thin, speculative market where the extreme yields should be treated skeptically given the complete absence of liquidity.
Resolution rules
If US personal spending MoM for March 2026 is above 0.3, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUSPSPEND-26APR30-T0.3 yes 100