Will US personal spending MoM for March 2026 be above 0.7%?
Prediction markets currently give a 18% probability that Will US personal spending MoM for March 2026 be above 0.7%?. This contract trades at 18¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market is severely illiquid with only $6 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 16¢ price potentially unreliable.
Analysis
This market is severely illiquid with only $6 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 16¢ price potentially unreliable. The extreme implied yield of 31,083% on the Yes side signals either a mispriced contract or minimal market confidence in the 0.7% threshold being exceeded, though the recent price movement from 3¢ to 8¢ suggests some late positioning ahead of the April 30 close. With just 14 days to expiry and a high cliff risk index of 12, this contract carries significant execution risk and should be approached cautiously given the thin liquidity.
Resolution rules
If US personal spending MoM for March 2026 is above 0.7, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUSPSPEND-26APR30-T0.7 yes 100