What is the current probability for "Will Zach Wahls be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Iowa?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 62¢ (62% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on November 3, 2026. 195 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Zach Wahls be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Iowa?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 119.5% and 292.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Zach Wahls be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Iowa?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Zach Wahls be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Iowa?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 62% probability that Will Zach Wahls be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Iowa?. This contract trades at 62¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. This market shows extreme volatility (459% realized vol) and illiquidity despite $9.5K open interest, with just $21 in 24-hour volume and an 8¢ spread indicating thin order books.

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62¢

Bid/Ask 61/62¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $114.89·OI $9,560.02·Closes Nov 3, 2026·195d remaining

KXKXSENATEIAD-26-ZWAH

7-day price133 snapshots · 3 regime

61¢61¢ current

Apr 849¢Apr 22

Analysis

5d ago

This market shows extreme volatility (459% realized vol) and illiquidity despite $9.5K open interest, with just $21 in 24-hour volume and an 8¢ spread indicating thin order books. The 50¢ midprice has declined 8¢ over the past week, suggesting weakening conviction in Wahls's nomination prospects, though the symmetric 182% implied yield on both sides reflects genuine uncertainty rather than directional bias. With 201 days to expiry and a low cliff risk index, there's ample time for information to arrive (0.6 events/hour), making this a speculative position best suited for traders comfortable with wide swings rather than conviction bettors.

Cross-venue

Also on polymarket at 64¢(Δ -2¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.88IY 506.0%Close-time delta 3711h

Resolution rules

If Zach Wahls wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Senate Iowa Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 119.5%

IY (No) 292.5%

Adj IY 292%

CRI 2

RV 223%

VR 1.88

▶ Full indicator table (7)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	119.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	292.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	292%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	223%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.88	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.4/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 10:15:27 AM

Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 10:08:23 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXKXSENATEIAD-26-ZWAH yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →