Will the A100 SXM4 compute per hour price be above $0.76 on Apr 30
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 35% across 8 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
35%
8 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
−10pp
15h ago
24h volume
$50K
8 contracts
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
993 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
8 clusters across 8 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 18% of their title tokens — “Will Chennai Super Kings win the IPL” vs “Will Nate Diaz win the Diaz vs Perry professional MMA fight scheduled for May 16, 2026”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Chennai Super Kings win the IPL
Will Chennai Super Kings win the IPL?: Chennai Super Kings
KXIPL-26-CSK
Cluster 2
Will Nate Diaz win the Diaz vs Perry professional MMA fight scheduled for May 16, 2026
Cluster 3
Will Mike Perry win the Diaz vs Perry professional MMA fight scheduled for May 16, 2026
Cluster 4
Will the U.S. sovereign wealth fund be operational before 2027
Will the U.S. sovereign wealth fund be operational before 2027?: Before 2027
KXUSFUND-27
Cluster 5
Will Brad Raffensperger be the Republican nominee for Governor in Georgia
Will Brad Raffensperger be the Republican nominee for Governor in Georgia?: Brad Raffensperger
KXGOVGANOMR-26-BR
Cluster 6
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election
Cluster 7
Will Tulsi Gabbard be the next person to leave the Trump Cabinet
Will Tulsi Gabbard be the next person to leave the Trump Cabinet?: Tulsi Gabbard
KXCABOUT-26APR20-TGAB
Cluster 8
Will AI be Time Person of the Year in 2026
Will AI be Time Person of the Year in 2026?: AI
KXTIME-26-AI
Analysis
This prediction asks whether NVIDIA's A100 SXM4 GPU rental pricing will exceed $0.76 per hour as of April 30, 2026—a reference point for enterprise AI infrastructure costs. The 45% probability reflects uncertainty about cloud compute pricing trends in a competitive market. GPU rental rates depend primarily on supply dynamics (increased manufacturing capacity could lower prices) and demand patterns (adoption of newer architectures like H100/H200 might reduce A100 demand). The resolution date has already passed relative to today's date, suggesting this contract may have settled or is awaiting final pricing verification from major cloud providers. Historical pricing data and current spot rates from AWS, Google Cloud, or Azure will determine the outcome.
- ›Current A100 SXM4 hourly pricing across major cloud providers (AWS, GCP, Azure) as of April 30, 2026
- ›Supply-side factors including NVIDIA production volumes and GPU inventory levels available for rental
- ›Demand migration to newer GPU architectures (H100, H200) affecting A100 utilization rates and pricing pressure
- ›Competitive pricing moves by cloud providers responding to market conditions in early 2026
- ›Official pricing documentation or invoicing records from major compute vendors for the April 30 reference date
What moved the line
- May 2Tulsi Gabbard↓19pp54→35¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Tulsi Gabbard↑8pp35→43¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 26Tulsi Gabbard↓7pp56→49¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 30Nate Diaz↑6pp29→35¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 27Tulsi Gabbard↑6pp49→55¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 7 min ago.