Will Brad Raffensperger be the Republican nominee for Governor in Georgia?
Prediction markets currently give a 9% probability that Will Brad Raffensperger be the Republican nominee for Governor in Georgia?. This contract trades at 9¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. The market is pricing Raffensperger at just 9¢ with an extraordinarily high implied yield of 2092% on the Yes side, suggesting traders view his nomination chances as extremely remote despite his current position as Georgia Secretary of State.
Analysis
The market is pricing Raffensperger at just 9¢ with an extraordinarily high implied yield of 2092% on the Yes side, suggesting traders view his nomination chances as extremely remote despite his current position as Georgia Secretary of State. Volume is thin at $583.69 over 24 hours against $27,240 open interest, indicating limited liquidity that could amplify price swings as the 201-day countdown progresses. The recent price movement from 6¢ to 8¢ combined with a moderate cliff risk index of 12 suggests underlying uncertainty about the nomination dynamics, though the tight 1¢ spread indicates reasonable market efficiency at this low price level.
Also on polymarket at 12¢(Δ -3¢)
Resolution rules
If Brad Raffensperger wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Georgia Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGOVGANOMR-26-BR yes 100