Will Norbert be categorized as a hurricane in the Eastern Pacific in 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 24% across 16 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
24%
16 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$33
16 contracts
Closes
Dec 1, 2026
177 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
16 clusters across 16 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Amanda be categorized as a hurricane in the Eastern Pacific in 2026
Will Amanda be categorized as a hurricane in the Eastern Pacific in 2026?: Amanda
KXHURRICANENAMES-26DEC01EPAC-AMA
Cluster 2
Will Boris be categorized as a hurricane in the Eastern Pacific in 2026
Will Boris be categorized as a hurricane in the Eastern Pacific in 2026?: Boris
KXHURRICANENAMES-26DEC01EPAC-BOR
Cluster 3
Will Arthur be categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026
Will Arthur be categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?: Arthur
KXHURRICANENAMES-26DEC01ATL-ART
Cluster 4
Will Cristina be categorized as a hurricane in the Eastern Pacific in 2026
Will Cristina be categorized as a hurricane in the Eastern Pacific in 2026?: Cristina
KXHURRICANENAMES-26DEC01EPAC-CRI
Cluster 5
Will Nolo be categorized as a hurricane in the Central Pacific in 2026
Will Nolo be categorized as a hurricane in the Central Pacific in 2026?: Nolo
KXHURRICANENAMES-26DEC01CPAC-NOL
Cluster 6
Will Olana be categorized as a hurricane in the Central Pacific in 2026
Will Olana be categorized as a hurricane in the Central Pacific in 2026?: Olana
KXHURRICANENAMES-26DEC01CPAC-OLA
Cluster 7
Will Pena be categorized as a hurricane in the Central Pacific in 2026
Will Pena be categorized as a hurricane in the Central Pacific in 2026?: Pena
KXHURRICANENAMES-26DEC01CPAC-PEN
Cluster 8
Will Ulana be categorized as a hurricane in the Central Pacific in 2026
Will Ulana be categorized as a hurricane in the Central Pacific in 2026?: Ulana
KXHURRICANENAMES-26DEC01CPAC-ULA
Cluster 9
Will Wale be categorized as a hurricane in the Central Pacific in 2026
Will Wale be categorized as a hurricane in the Central Pacific in 2026?: Wale
KXHURRICANENAMES-26DEC01CPAC-WAL
Cluster 10
Will Bertha be categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026
Will Bertha be categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?: Bertha
KXHURRICANENAMES-26DEC01ATL-BER
Cluster 11
Will Cristobal be categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026
Will Cristobal be categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?: Cristobal
KXHURRICANENAMES-26DEC01ATL-CRI
Cluster 12
Will Dolly be categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026
Will Dolly be categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?: Dolly
KXHURRICANENAMES-26DEC01ATL-DOL
Cluster 13
Will Edouard be categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026
Will Edouard be categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?: Edouard
KXHURRICANENAMES-26DEC01ATL-EDO
Cluster 14
Will Josephine be categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026
Will Josephine be categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?: Josephine
KXHURRICANENAMES-26DEC01ATL-JOS
Cluster 15
Will Kyle be categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026
Will Kyle be categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?: Kyle
KXHURRICANENAMES-26DEC01ATL-KYL
Cluster 16
Will Leah be categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026
Will Leah be categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?: Leah
KXHURRICANENAMES-26DEC01ATL-LEA
Analysis
This market assesses whether tropical cyclone Norbert will reach hurricane strength while located in the Eastern Pacific Ocean during the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. The 20% probability reflects base rates for named storms in this region and typical seasonal patterns. Hurricane development depends primarily on ocean temperatures and atmospheric conditions that support intensification. The market will resolve based on official National Hurricane Center classifications, which provide real-time updates throughout the season. Norbert's current trajectory and any emerging weather patterns over the next 1-2 months will be the main factors determining whether conditions favor rapid intensification to hurricane-force winds (sustained speeds of 74+ mph). Historical data on similar storm tracks and seasonal water temperatures in the Eastern Pacific will anchor trader expectations until Norbert's actual formation and movement become apparent.
- ›Eastern Pacific ocean surface temperatures in summer 2026 relative to 30-year averages, which directly influence storm intensification potential
- ›Atmospheric instability indices (wind shear, humidity, pressure patterns) forecasted for Norbert's predicted track
- ›Historical frequency of named storms reaching hurricane status in the Eastern Pacific during June-November periods
- ›National Hurricane Center official classifications and sustained wind speed measurements once Norbert forms and develops
- ›Seasonal forecast confidence levels from NOAA and other meteorological agencies for 2026 Atlantic basin activity
What moved the line
- Jun 1Bertha↑19pp41→60¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 1Arthur↑8pp6→14¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 1Dolly↓3pp47→44¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in climate
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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