Will Norbert be categorized as a hurricane in the Eastern Pacific in 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 18% across 14 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
18%
14 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$804
14 contracts
Closes
Dec 1, 2026
80 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
14 clusters across 14 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Norbert be categorized as a hurricane in the Eastern Pacific in 2026
Will Norbert be categorized as a hurricane in the Eastern Pacific in 2026?: Norbert
KXHURRICANENAMES-26DEC01EPAC-NOR
Cluster 2
Will Gonzalo be categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026
Will Gonzalo be categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?: Gonzalo
KXHURRICANENAMES-26DEC01ATL-GON
Cluster 3
Will Fay be categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026
Will Fay be categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?: Fay
KXHURRICANENAMES-26DEC01ATL-FAY
Cluster 4
Will Hanna be categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026
Will Hanna be categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?: Hanna
KXHURRICANENAMES-26DEC01ATL-HAN
Cluster 5
Will Isaias be categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026
Will Isaias be categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?: Isaias
KXHURRICANENAMES-26DEC01ATL-ISA
Cluster 6
Will Josephine be categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026
Will Josephine be categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?: Josephine
KXHURRICANENAMES-26DEC01ATL-JOS
Cluster 7
Will Kyle be categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026
Will Kyle be categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?: Kyle
KXHURRICANENAMES-26DEC01ATL-KYL
Cluster 8
Will Leah be categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026
Will Leah be categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?: Leah
KXHURRICANENAMES-26DEC01ATL-LEA
Cluster 9
Will Marco be categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026
Will Marco be categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?: Marco
KXHURRICANENAMES-26DEC01ATL-MAR
Cluster 10
Will Nana be categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026
Will Nana be categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?: Nana
KXHURRICANENAMES-26DEC01ATL-NAN
Cluster 11
Will Omar be categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026
Will Omar be categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?: Omar
KXHURRICANENAMES-26DEC01ATL-OMA
Cluster 12
Will Paulette be categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026
Will Paulette be categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?: Paulette
KXHURRICANENAMES-26DEC01ATL-PAU
Cluster 13
Will Sally be categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026
Will Sally be categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?: Sally
KXHURRICANENAMES-26DEC01ATL-SAL
Cluster 14
Will Wilfred be categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026
Will Wilfred be categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?: Wilfred
KXHURRICANENAMES-26DEC01ATL-WIL
Analysis
This market assesses whether tropical cyclone Norbert will reach hurricane strength while located in the Eastern Pacific Ocean during the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. The 20% probability reflects base rates for named storms in this region and typical seasonal patterns. Hurricane development depends primarily on ocean temperatures and atmospheric conditions that support intensification. The market will resolve based on official National Hurricane Center classifications, which provide real-time updates throughout the season. Norbert's current trajectory and any emerging weather patterns over the next 1-2 months will be the main factors determining whether conditions favor rapid intensification to hurricane-force winds (sustained speeds of 74+ mph). Historical data on similar storm tracks and seasonal water temperatures in the Eastern Pacific will anchor trader expectations until Norbert's actual formation and movement become apparent.
- ›Eastern Pacific ocean surface temperatures in summer 2026 relative to 30-year averages, which directly influence storm intensification potential
- ›Atmospheric instability indices (wind shear, humidity, pressure patterns) forecasted for Norbert's predicted track
- ›Historical frequency of named storms reaching hurricane status in the Eastern Pacific during June-November periods
- ›National Hurricane Center official classifications and sustained wind speed measurements once Norbert forms and develops
- ›Seasonal forecast confidence levels from NOAA and other meteorological agencies for 2026 Atlantic basin activity
What moved the line
- Sep 6Norbert↓36pp37→1¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 10Norbert↑28pp11→39¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 11Fay↑20pp22→42¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 10Marco↑11pp4→15¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 9Norbert↑10pp1→11¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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