Will there be more than 1 hurricane of category 1 or above in the Central Pacific in 2026
Leader sits at 93% across 20 bound outcomes, runner-up at 92%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 1
Outcomes
20
winner-take-all
Runner-up
92¢
Above 5
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$42
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 1, 2026
131 days
Venue
Kalshi
20 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will there be more than
Will there be more than 13 hurricanes of category 1 or above in the Eastern Pacific in 2026?: Above 13
KXHURRICANE-26DEC01EPACTOT-13
Will there be more than 10 hurricanes of category 1 or above in the Eastern Pacific in 2026?: Above 10
KXHURRICANE-26DEC01EPACTOT-10
Will there be more than 12 hurricanes of category 1 or above in the Eastern Pacific in 2026?: Above 12
KXHURRICANE-26DEC01EPACTOT-12
Will there be more than 5 hurricanes of category 1 or above in the Eastern Pacific in 2026?: Above 5
KXHURRICANE-26DEC01EPACTOT-5
Will there be more than 11 hurricanes of category 1 or above in the Eastern Pacific in 2026?: Above 11
KXHURRICANE-26DEC01EPACTOT-11
Will there be more than 8 hurricanes of category 3 or above in the Eastern Pacific in 2026?: Above 8
KXHURRICANE-26DEC01EPACMAJ-8
Will there be more than 7 hurricanes of category 3 or above in the Eastern Pacific in 2026?: Above 7
KXHURRICANE-26DEC01EPACMAJ-7
Will there be more than 6 hurricanes of category 3 or above in the Eastern Pacific in 2026?: Above 6
KXHURRICANE-26DEC01EPACMAJ-6
Will there be more than 5 hurricanes of category 3 or above in the Eastern Pacific in 2026?: Above 5
KXHURRICANE-26DEC01EPACMAJ-5
Will there be more than 4 hurricanes of category 3 or above in the Eastern Pacific in 2026?: Above 4
KXHURRICANE-26DEC01EPACMAJ-4
Will there be more than 3 hurricanes of category 3 or above in the Eastern Pacific in 2026?: Above 3
KXHURRICANE-26DEC01EPACMAJ-3
Will there be more than 5 hurricanes of category 1 or above in the Central Pacific in 2026?: Above 5
KXHURRICANE-26DEC01CPACTOT-5
Will there be more than 4 hurricanes of category 1 or above in the Central Pacific in 2026?: Above 4
KXHURRICANE-26DEC01CPACTOT-4
Will there be more than 3 hurricanes of category 1 or above in the Central Pacific in 2026?: Above 3
KXHURRICANE-26DEC01CPACTOT-3
Will there be more than 2 hurricanes of category 1 or above in the Central Pacific in 2026?: Above 2
KXHURRICANE-26DEC01CPACTOT-2
Will there be more than 1 hurricane of category 1 or above in the Central Pacific in 2026?: Above 1
KXHURRICANE-26DEC01CPACTOT-1
Will there be more than 3 hurricanes of category 3 or above in the Central Pacific in 2026?: Above 3
KXHURRICANE-26DEC01CPACMAJ-3
Will there be more than 2 hurricanes of category 3 or above in the Central Pacific in 2026?: Above 2
KXHURRICANE-26DEC01CPACMAJ-2
Will there be more than 1 hurricane of category 3 or above in the Central Pacific in 2026?: Above 1
KXHURRICANE-26DEC01CPACMAJ-1
Will there be more than 0 hurricanes of category 3 or above in the Central Pacific in 2026?: Above 0
KXHURRICANE-26DEC01CPACMAJ-0
Analysis
This prediction asks whether the Central Pacific basin will experience at least two hurricanes of category 1 strength or higher during 2026. The 90% probability reflects strong confidence this threshold will be met. The assessment is driven primarily by historical baseline rates—the Central Pacific typically sees 3-4 hurricanes annually—and current sea surface temperature patterns. The main variable is whether atmospheric conditions (vertical wind shear, atmospheric instability) remain favorable for storm development through the peak August-October season. The key driver of uncertainty centers on whether sea surface temperatures in the Pacific warm or cool relative to current forecasts, which directly affects hurricane genesis frequency. Resolution depends on observations from the National Hurricane Center's official records through December 31, 2026, with most storms typically occurring between July and November when conditions are most conducive to development.
- ›Central Pacific historical average of 3-4 hurricanes annually from 1950-2024 baseline data
- ›Current sea surface temperature anomalies and their projected evolution through peak hurricane season (August-October)
- ›Vertical wind shear patterns forecasted for mid-Pacific during 2026 warm season
- ›ENSO phase and tropical Pacific circulation patterns as of May 2026
- ›Official National Hurricane Center categorization criteria applied to any tracked systems
What moved the line
- Jul 23Above 10↓53pp92→39¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 21Above 2↓26pp59→33¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 16Above 3↓24pp54→30¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 23Above 4↑24pp10→34¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 20Above 10↑23pp68→91¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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