Beijing Guoan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC - More Markets
Leader sits at 82% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 61%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
O/U 1.5
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
61¢
O/U 2.5
Spread
21pp
contested
24h volume
$8
thin orderbook
Closes
May 6, 2026
3 days
Venue
Polymarket
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC - More Markets
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0xd0a2f0…02d4
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0xa6bb1f…bbaa
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x7eaf4e…d03e
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x3ff606…2e24
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC - More Markets: Dalian Yingbo FC (-1.5)
0xa820b4…50da
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC - More Markets: Beijing Guoan FC (-1.5)
0x731925…5c99
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x401619…be41
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC - More Markets: Dalian Yingbo FC (-2.5)
0xabf5f0…e2ae
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC - More Markets: Beijing Guoan FC (-2.5)
0xbba24f…1e51
Analysis
This 36% probability reflects market expectations that Beijing Guoan FC will win more matches than Dalian Yingbo FC over a defined period. The aggregate comes from Kalshi and Polymarket, with a 7 percentage-point gap suggesting some disagreement about Guoan's recent form and squad strength. Guoan's historical performance in the Chinese Super League and current injury status would primarily move this probability. Dalian Yingbo's recent results and defensive record would push it lower if they show improvement. The main resolution driver is the completion of the specified match window—likely a full season or tournament phase. Near-term head-to-head results and any significant roster changes before the period ends will clarify whether current pricing reflects true win distributions.
- ›Beijing Guoan's seasonal win rate in recent Chinese Super League campaigns versus their historical average
- ›Dalian Yingbo FC's actual match results and goal differential during the relevant comparison period
- ›Polymarket contracts trading at 37% versus Kalshi at 30% suggests venue-specific trader disagreement on Guoan's likelihood
- ›Liquidity remains thin ($45 24h volume on the Dalian Yingbo FC contract), potentially reflecting low market confidence or limited trader interest
- ›Any confirmed roster changes, manager swaps, or injuries announced before the measurement period begins could shift expectations significantly
What moved the line
- May 3Dalian Yingbo FC (-1.5)↑13pp15→28¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Beijing Guoan FC (-2.5)↑9pp20→29¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Dalian Yingbo FC (-2.5)↑3pp11→14¢ · Polymarket
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 23 min ago.