China & Taiwan Prediction Market Odds
Live prediction market odds for China-Taiwan tensions. Track invasion probability, trade war escalation, and diplomatic outcomes across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Active markets
12
Avg probability
45%
24h volume
$2K
Questions tracked
6
Key Markets
Specific odds in this topic
Dispatches
Trump-China Visit at 74% by May — Highest-Volume Geopolitical Event
Prediction markets price elevated probabilities for a near-term Trump visit to China, reflecting trader consensus that personal diplomacy will precede hardline trade actions.
Trump China Visit Locked In at 95% Probability: Markets Expect Mid-May Summit
Donald Trump visiting China by May 15 is priced at 91¢ (+1¢) and by May 31 at 95¢ (+2¢) — extremely high conviction. This would be the most consequential US-China diplomatic engagement since Xi's reelection. Markets are pricing this as a near-certainty.
Trump China Visit May 15 Surges +13¢ — Diplomatic Breakthrough Priced
The Trump-China May 15 visit market jumped +13¢ to 72¢ today, signaling traders believe a diplomatic trip is imminent. Combined with the June 30 market at 83¢, prediction markets are pricing a near-certain Trump visit to China within 7 weeks. This has major implications for tariff de-escalation trades.
Trump China Visit Markets Surge — May 31 Probability Jumps +8¢ to 78¢
All Trump China visit markets rose simultaneously today, with the May 31 contract gaining the most at +8¢ to 78¢. This coordinated move across multiple time horizons strongly suggests concrete diplomatic progress or a leaked itinerary for a landmark Trump-Xi bilateral meeting.
Trump China Visit Markets Explode: May 31 Jumps to 78¢
All Trump-China visit contracts surged simultaneously today — May 31 +8¢ to 78¢, May 15 +3¢ to 61¢, June 30 +3¢ to 85¢. A coordinated move across multiple timeframes signals new information about an imminent Trump-Xi summit, which would be the most significant diplomatic event of 2026.
Trump China Visit Timeline Pushed Back — May 15 Contract Drops 7¢
The Trump China visit by May 15 contract dropped -7¢ to 59¢ while the May 31 version fell -5¢ to 69¢. Despite the June 30 contract still at 80¢, short-term visit probability is fading, creating potential arbitrage between near-term and longer-dated contracts.
China GDP Beats, Trump Visit Coming: Major Macro Catalyst for China Markets
China's Q1 2026 GDP data confirmed 5.0-5.5% growth today with a +69¢ market resolution, while the 4.5-5.0% bucket collapsed -61¢. Simultaneously, Trump visiting China by May 31 sits at 83¢ (+3¢) — a potential major trade deal catalyst that markets are repricing upward.
China Q1 GDP Data Drops: Growth Misses 5% Target, Lands 4.5-5.0%
China GDP prediction markets showed seismic moves today with the 4.5-5.0% growth bucket surging +39¢ to 66¢ while the 5.0-5.5% bucket simultaneously crashed -44¢. This coordinated move almost certainly reflects official Q1 2026 GDP data being released, showing China's economy grew below the 5% government target. The annual GDP 2026 market at 72¢ for 4.0-5.0% range remains intact.
China Q1 GDP Data Released: Growth Lands in 4.5-5% Range, Missing Higher Targets
China Q1 2026 GDP growth markets saw a massive +47¢ move to 71¢ for the '4.5-5.0%' bucket while the '5.0-5.5%' bucket collapsed -44¢ to 30¢. This binary flip with $14k combined volume strongly suggests actual GDP data was published today, confirming growth came in at the lower end of expectations.
Trump's Diplomatic Momentum: China Visit Probability Surges Post-Iran Deal
Markets are betting Trump will visit China within weeks, with the May 31 contract jumping +13¢ to 84¢ and the June 30 version at 87¢. Xi Jinping visiting the US gained +5¢ to 64¢. The Iran ceasefire appears to have created diplomatic capital that traders believe Trump will immediately deploy toward China relations.
Trending today
David Benavidez vs. Gilberto Ramirez (boxing match)
event
The query refers to a specific professional boxing match between David Benavidez and Gilberto 'Zurdo' Ramirez. The news headlines confirm this is a specific upcoming boxing event with details about the referee, judges, date, time and broadcast information. This is a particular sporting event rather than a general topic, warranting the addition of the participants' names and sport context to the canonical name.
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work
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Mexico vs South Africa (FIFA World Cup 2026)
event
The query 'mexico vs south africa' combined with World Cup-related news headlines clearly refers to a specific World Cup match between these two national teams. The news mentions the World Cup tournament context, and this is a particular sporting event match. The canonical name includes the tournament and year for specificity, following the pattern of the provided examples.
Also Tracking
npm i -g @spfunctions/cli && sf query "china"