China & Taiwan Prediction Market Odds

Trump China Visit Locked In at 95% Probability: Markets Expect Mid-May Summit

Donald Trump visiting China by May 15 is priced at 91¢ (+1¢) and by May 31 at 95¢ (+2¢) — extremely high conviction. This would be the most consequential US-China diplomatic engagement since Xi's reelection. Markets are pricing this as a near-certainty.

Trump China Visit May 15 Surges +13¢ — Diplomatic Breakthrough Priced

The Trump-China May 15 visit market jumped +13¢ to 72¢ today, signaling traders believe a diplomatic trip is imminent. Combined with the June 30 market at 83¢, prediction markets are pricing a near-certain Trump visit to China within 7 weeks. This has major implications for tariff de-escalation trades.

Trump China Visit Markets Surge — May 31 Probability Jumps +8¢ to 78¢

All Trump China visit markets rose simultaneously today, with the May 31 contract gaining the most at +8¢ to 78¢. This coordinated move across multiple time horizons strongly suggests concrete diplomatic progress or a leaked itinerary for a landmark Trump-Xi bilateral meeting.

Trump China Visit Markets Explode: May 31 Jumps to 78¢

All Trump-China visit contracts surged simultaneously today — May 31 +8¢ to 78¢, May 15 +3¢ to 61¢, June 30 +3¢ to 85¢. A coordinated move across multiple timeframes signals new information about an imminent Trump-Xi summit, which would be the most significant diplomatic event of 2026.

Trump China Visit Timeline Pushed Back — May 15 Contract Drops 7¢

The Trump China visit by May 15 contract dropped -7¢ to 59¢ while the May 31 version fell -5¢ to 69¢. Despite the June 30 contract still at 80¢, short-term visit probability is fading, creating potential arbitrage between near-term and longer-dated contracts.

China GDP Beats, Trump Visit Coming: Major Macro Catalyst for China Markets

China's Q1 2026 GDP data confirmed 5.0-5.5% growth today with a +69¢ market resolution, while the 4.5-5.0% bucket collapsed -61¢. Simultaneously, Trump visiting China by May 31 sits at 83¢ (+3¢) — a potential major trade deal catalyst that markets are repricing upward.

China Q1 GDP Data Drops: Growth Misses 5% Target, Lands 4.5-5.0%

China GDP prediction markets showed seismic moves today with the 4.5-5.0% growth bucket surging +39¢ to 66¢ while the 5.0-5.5% bucket simultaneously crashed -44¢. This coordinated move almost certainly reflects official Q1 2026 GDP data being released, showing China's economy grew below the 5% government target. The annual GDP 2026 market at 72¢ for 4.0-5.0% range remains intact.

China Q1 GDP Data Released: Growth Lands in 4.5-5% Range, Missing Higher Targets

China Q1 2026 GDP growth markets saw a massive +47¢ move to 71¢ for the '4.5-5.0%' bucket while the '5.0-5.5%' bucket collapsed -44¢ to 30¢. This binary flip with $14k combined volume strongly suggests actual GDP data was published today, confirming growth came in at the lower end of expectations.

Trump's Diplomatic Momentum: China Visit Probability Surges Post-Iran Deal

Markets are betting Trump will visit China within weeks, with the May 31 contract jumping +13¢ to 84¢ and the June 30 version at 87¢. Xi Jinping visiting the US gained +5¢ to 64¢. The Iran ceasefire appears to have created diplomatic capital that traders believe Trump will immediately deploy toward China relations.

Trump-China Visit at 74% by May — Highest-Volume Geopolitical Event

Markets price a 74% probability that Trump visits China by May 31, making it the highest-volume geopolitical event contract with $43K in 24h volume. A confirmed visit would have major implications for tariff negotiations, tech restrictions, and Taiwan policy. Combined with 92% probability of a 2026 Trump visit to China, this is essentially a timing question, not an if question.