Trump-China Visit at 74% by May — Highest-Volume Geopolitical Event
Markets price a 74% probability that Trump visits China by May 31, making it the highest-volume geopolitical event contract with $43K in 24h volume. A confirmed visit would have major implications for tariff negotiations, tech restrictions, and Taiwan policy. Combined with 92% probability of a 2026 Trump visit to China, this is essentially a timing question, not an if question.
Mar 30full analysis