Will Carol Burnett win Comedy Supporting Actress at the Emmy Awards
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 25% across 4 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
25%
4 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
4 contracts
Closes
Sep 14, 2027
378 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Kate O'Flynn win Comedy Supporting Actress at the Emmy Awards
Will Kate O'Flynn win Comedy Supporting Actress at the Emmy Awards?: Kate O'Flynn
KXEMMYCSACTR-26SEP14-KAT
Cluster 2
Will Janelle James win Comedy Supporting Actress at the Emmy Awards
Will Janelle James win Comedy Supporting Actress at the Emmy Awards?: Janelle James
KXEMMYCSACTR-26SEP14-JAN
Cluster 3
Will Hannah Einbinder win Comedy Supporting Actress at the Emmy Awards
Will Hannah Einbinder win Comedy Supporting Actress at the Emmy Awards?: Hannah Einbinder
KXEMMYCSACTR-26SEP14-HAN
Cluster 4
Will Tie win Comedy Supporting Actress at the Emmy Awards
Will Tie win Comedy Supporting Actress at the Emmy Awards?: Tie
KXEMMYCSACTR-26SEP14-TIE
Analysis
This 21% probability reflects market expectations that Carol Burnett will win the Emmy Award for Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series. The current odds place her as a moderate contender among several candidates, with Hannah Einbinder commanding the largest share at 55%, suggesting she is viewed as the frontrunner. Burnett's positioning reflects her experience and cultural prominence, though the fragmented market—where no single candidate captures overwhelming probability—indicates genuine uncertainty about voter preferences. The Emmy Awards typically air in September, and nomination announcements in July provide crucial information that would significantly shift these probabilities. Voter composition, campaign momentum following nominations, and recent episode performance from competing shows will likely determine final outcomes. The relatively low trading volume across all contracts suggests limited market conviction overall.
- ›Carol Burnett's nomination status and whether her show remains in active Emmy consideration through voting
- ›Direct performance comparison against Hannah Einbinder (55% leader) and other named competitors in recent episodes
- ›Emmy voters' historical preferences for comedic supporting performances and whether Burnett's work aligns with recent voting patterns
- ›Timing and impact of official Emmy nominations (typically early July), which would provide definitive information on the eligible candidate pool
- ›Total number of eligible competing actresses in the category and whether split voting advantages or disadvantages Burnett relative to front-runners
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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