2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election Winner
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 92% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
92%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
−2pp
12h ago
24h volume
$1K
1 contracts
Closes
Jun 3, 2026
30 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election Winner: Choo Mi-ae
2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election Winner: Choo Mi-ae
0xd07ad1…9d38
Analysis
This 94% probability indicates market participants expect Choo Mi-ae to win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province gubernatorial election. Gyeonggi is South Korea's most populous province, making this race significant for regional politics and potential national implications. The high probability reflects current polling strength and political positioning, though gubernatorial races can shift based on candidate campaigns, policy announcements, and local economic conditions. The election occurs in June 2026, providing roughly one month for campaigns to potentially alter voter preferences. Market liquidity remains relatively modest at under $2,000 in 24-hour volume, suggesting limited trading activity and potential price sensitivity to new information or polling releases. Factors that could move this probability include major scandal revelations, significant policy shifts by competing candidates, or unexpected turnout patterns in key districts.
- ›Choo Mi-ae's current polling position relative to other declared or potential candidates in Gyeonggi Province
- ›Trading volume and participant conviction level (current 24h volume ~$1,961 suggests moderate market interest)
- ›Timing of campaign events, candidate endorsements, or policy announcements between now and June 2026 election date
- ›Regional economic conditions in Gyeonggi Province that could shift voter priorities during the campaign period
- ›Any major political scandals or controversies affecting Choo Mi-ae or competing candidates before voting occurs
What moved the line
- Apr 29Choo Mi-ae↑18pp76→94¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28Choo Mi-ae↓17pp93→76¢ · Polymarket
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (92% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
California Billionaire Wealth Tax Ballot Measure Surges +23¢ — Now 93¢ to Appear
The Polymarket contract for whether a one-time billionaire tax appears on the California 2026 ballot jumped an extraordinary +23¢ to 93¢ today, while the separate 'passes' contract jumped +10¢ to 48¢. This suggests the measure has cleared a major legal or signature-gathering threshold.
2026 Midterms: Democrats 85% to Flip House, Senate a Toss-Up
Prediction markets price Democrats as 85% favorites to flip the House while the Senate races at a coin-flip, with a full Democratic sweep now the single most likely outcome at 50%.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 9 min ago.