IR Iran vs. New Zealand
Leader sits at 52% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 24%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
IR Iran
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
24¢
Draw (IR Iran vs. New Zealan
Spread
28pp
contested
24h volume
$16
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 16, 2026
43 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
IR Iran vs. New Zealand
Analysis
This 23% probability reflects market expectations that Iran will reach a new nuclear agreement with the United States before the end of 2026. The assessment factors in the current diplomatic environment and historical precedent for such negotiations. Near-term probability is notably lower (9% for a deal before June), suggesting markets expect any agreement would take several months if pursued. Key drivers include the U.S. administration's stance on Iran policy, Iran's willingness to negotiate, and the geopolitical context. The trajectory of these talks would be most visible through public statements from both governments and any direct diplomatic engagement announced in coming weeks. Market pricing implies skepticism about near-term resolution but acknowledges material possibility of a deal within the broader 2026 timeframe.
- ›Near-term deal probability (9% by June) is substantially lower than full-year probability (50% by 2027), indicating markets expect extended negotiation timelines if talks occur
- ›The 16% probability for New Zealand recognizing Palestine appears on the same market but represents a distinct geopolitical question, suggesting complex regional dynamics affecting prediction markets
- ›Kalshi contract volumes vary significantly by timeframe, with highest volume ($28,074 in 24h) on the June deadline, indicating concentration of near-term uncertainty
- ›U.S. presidential administration policies on Iran sanctions and diplomatic engagement represent the primary variable affecting deal probability
- ›Historical Iran nuclear negotiations (JCPOA timeline) lasted months to years, making 2026 achievement contingent on immediate diplomatic initiation
What moved the line
- May 2New Zealand↓4pp26→22¢ · Polymarket
- May 3New Zealand↑3pp22→25¢ · Polymarket
More like this
Other questions in iran.
In iran
Related reading
Iran Military Operations Continue — Regime Stability at 8¢ for June, Oil Disruption Ongoing
The US military campaign against Iran continues with near-zero odds of operations ending in April (2¢) and only 33¢ for May. The Iranian regime itself is priced at 8¢ to fall by June 30, and Kharg Island seizure is at 12¢ for May 31. The Hormuz disruption is the key transmission mechanism to global markets.
Strait of Hormuz Normalization Reprices: May Contract Jumps +5¢ as Iran Tensions Evolve
The Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization by end of May jumped +5¢ to 39¢ while the April contract expired at 0¢. This repricing suggests traders see meaningful probability of a US-Iran deal or de-escalation within the next month, with direct oil market implications.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 14 min ago.