Iran Prediction Market Odds

Iran Peace Deal Odds Surge as Diplomacy Heats Up

Markets are pricing a rapidly increasing probability of a US-Iran permanent peace deal, with the July 31 contract jumping 15¢ to 54¢ and the June 30 contract up 13¢ to 42¢. A US blockade lift announcement by June 30 surged 18¢ to 64¢, signaling that de-escalation in the Strait of Hormuz may be imminent.

Iran Peace Deal Optimism Surges, but Cautious Timelines Remain

Across multiple expiry dates, the probability of a US-Iran permanent peace deal increased significantly, with the June 30 contract rising +8 to 34¢ and the July 31 contract reaching 48¢. This optimism is coupled with a sharp rise in diplomatic meeting probabilities, suggesting a multi-track negotiation process is underway.

Iran nuclear deal odds tumble as May 31 deadline approaches

The market for a US-Iran permanent peace deal by May 31 dropped 2¢ to 8¢ with over 520k volume, while a diplomatic meeting by the same date fell 4¢ to 14¢. Traders are losing confidence in a near-term breakthrough, likely due to recent escalations and lack of progress in talks.

Iran Regime Change and Deal Markets Surge in Volume

Massive trading volume on Polymarket and Kalshi, driven by a jump in the probability of a presidential election and a permanent peace deal. The regime's survival after US strikes is seen as highly likely.

Iran Peace Deal Bets Swing on Long-Dated Optimism

The probability of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by December 31 jumped 4¢ to 67¢, while the June 30 contract dipped 2¢ to 32¢. This divergence suggests traders see progress but expect a longer timeline.

Iran De-escalation Odds Soar as Peace Deal and Diplomacy Markets Surge

US-Iran permanent peace deal contracts saw significant volume and price increases, with the December 31 timeline reaching 67¢ (+4¢) on 108k volume. The 'US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30' contract traded at 56¢. These moves suggest traders are pricing in a material chance of diplomatic resolution amid ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruptions.

Iran Peace Deal Optimism Fades, Strait of Hormuz Risk Premium Rises

The probability of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by May 31 fell 3 points to 11¢, while the odds of the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal by June 30 dropped 4 points to 28¢. These moves signal traders expect prolonged geopolitical disruption in the region.

Iran Peace Deal Odds Tumble Amid Stalled Talks

The probability of a U.S.-Iran permanent peace deal by May 31 dropped 3 points to 14¢, while the May 15 deadline contract sits at nearly zero. Traders are flocking to Epstein-related narratives as a proxy for Iran instability.

Iran Deal Odds Slide as Diplomacy Stalls, Hormuz Blockade in Focus

Iran nuclear deal odds dropped to 27% for June 30, down 4¢. Regime change probabilities remain low at 1-14%. The key tradeable contracts are peace deal deadlines and Hormuz normalization. A diplomatic breakthrough would sharply impact oil markets.

Hezbollah Disarmament Odds Jump 6¢, Sparking Middle East Peace Hopes

The 'Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31' contract surged 6¢ to 18¢, indicating growing market belief in a potential political or military shift in Lebanon. Traders should watch for follow-through on this move, as a disarmament could de-escalate broader regional tensions and impact oil prices.