Iran Prediction Market Odds

Iran Regime Fall at 36%, Nuclear Deal at 50%: Divergent Middle East Scenarios

Prediction markets are pricing simultaneous 36% regime-collapse and 50% nuclear-deal odds for Iran, suggesting traders see extreme volatility and binary outcomes rather than gradual policy shifts.

Iran Uranium Enrichment Deal Odds Surge 20 Points

The probability that Iran agrees to end uranium enrichment by June 30 has jumped from 40¢ to 60¢, the largest single-day move in this contract. Trading volume is very high, suggesting a potential leak, official statement, or significant progress in talks.

US-Iran Diplomatic Hopes Collapse for Mid-June

The probability of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15 has collapsed by 39 points to just 3¢, and the June 16 contract is down 47 points to 6¢. This is the clearest signal that the market sees immediate, high-level talks as very unlikely, even as a broader peace deal is considered a certainty.

US-Iran Peace Deal Probabilities Surge Across Timelines

Polymarket markets for a permanent US-Iran peace deal saw dramatic price increases across multiple deadlines, with the June 15th contract surging 61¢ to 84¢. This coordinated re-rating suggests a significant geopolitical catalyst or a shift in expert consensus on the likelihood of a near-term diplomatic breakthrough.

Iran Nuclear Deal Probability Surges 21 Points

The market for a US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30 jumped to 67¢, up from 46¢ yesterday, as diplomatic signals intensify. Related peace deals and Hormuz blockade markets also moved sharply.

Iran Nuclear Deal Odds Surge as June 30 Deadline Looms

The probability of a US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30 skyrocketed 29¢ to 45¢ in a single session, while a diplomatic meeting by that date jumped 35¢ to 68¢. Traders are pricing in a flurry of last-minute diplomacy, with the 'peace deal by December 31' contract at 76¢ suggesting a long-term resolution is considered likely even if the June deadline slips.

Iran Tensions at a Boiling Point as Airspace Closure Imminent

The market is pricing in a near-certainty (100¢) that Iran will close its airspace by June 8, reflecting extreme geopolitical risk. High-volume contracts on diplomatic meetings and peace deals are also active, but the bearish risk is clearly priced in the near term.

Iran Nuclear Deal Odds Jump as Diplomacy Intensifies

The probability of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by December 31 remains robust at 68¢, while the 'nuclear deal by June 30' contract gained 1¢ to 20¢. Heightened diplomatic signals are drawing trader attention to the Strait of Hormuz markets.

Iran Airspace Closure Contracts Spike to 100¢ as Conflict Fears Peak

Multiple Polymarket contracts for Iran closing its airspace surged to 100¢, reflecting a market consensus that a military confrontation is imminent. This has broad implications for oil prices, global risk appetite, and regional stability.

Iran Peace Deal Odds Collapse as June Deadlines Loom

The probability of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by June 30 dropped 6 cents to 17%, and by July 31 fell 11 cents to 28%. This swift repricing reflects increased skepticism that the parties can reach an agreement in the near term, putting upward pressure on oil risk premium. The 'No Meeting by June 30' contract for US-Iran diplomatic meetings jumped to 67 cents.