Iran Prediction Market Odds

Oil Surges 12% as Iran Invasion Odds Hit 55¢

USO crude oil ETF surged 12% today while Polymarket prices a 55% chance of US invasion of Iran before 2027. Kalshi's WTI maximum price markets show $150 oil at coin-flip odds (51¢) and $200 oil at 19¢.

US-Iran Conflict at 54%: Highest Geopolitical Risk Premium on Any Platform

The US invasion of Iran market sits at 54% with nearly $487K in volume — effectively a coin flip with massive conviction. Iran's NPT withdrawal surged 4 points to 32%, and Iran nuclear test is at 9%. The Iranian regime falling sits at 28%. These are the most consequential and liquid geopolitical risk markets available.

US-Iran Invasion Odds at 56% — Most Liquid Geopolitical Market

The US invasion of Iran market is the most traded geopolitical contract at $232K daily volume, sitting at a striking 56% probability. Meanwhile, Iran regime fall odds are at 27% and nuclear deal odds at 39%. These markets collectively suggest the Middle East is at a critical inflection point with major commodity implications.

Iran Invasion at Coin-Flip: The Biggest Geopolitical Binary

The U.S. invading Iran before 2027 sits at 53%—essentially a coin flip with $225K+ in volume. Combined with Iran regime fall at 24% and Iran nuclear deal at 39%, these three markets paint a picture of extreme Middle East uncertainty. Gold hitting new highs (+1.82%) and oil dropping (-2.7%) add to the macro tension.

US-Iran at Coin Flip — Highest Geopolitical Risk Market

Will the US invade Iran before 2027 is sitting at 52¢ with massive volume ($204K), making it the single highest-risk geopolitical binary in prediction markets. Iran nuclear test at 13¢, NPT withdrawal at 28¢, and the nuclear deal at 46¢ form a constellation suggesting traders see a roughly even chance of military vs diplomatic resolution.

US-Iran Invasion Market at 55¢ — Biggest Geopolitical Bet

The probability of US invading Iran before 2027 sits at 55¢ with $160K+ in volume, making it the most actively traded geopolitical risk market. It dipped 3¢ today suggesting slight de-escalation, but the market also prices Iran's NPT withdrawal at 30¢ and nuclear weapon at 11¢. The Iran nuclear deal market sits at 49¢. These are correlated bets worth monitoring together.

Iran Conflict Odds at All-Time Highs: US Invasion at 59%, Regime Fall at 34%

Markets are pricing a historically elevated probability of US military action against Iran (59%) alongside a 34% chance the Iranian regime falls before 2027. The regime has 30% odds of withdrawing from the NPT, and nuclear test probability is at 10%. These interconnected markets suggest traders see a serious escalation pathway in the coming months.

Iran Risk Complex: Regime Fall at 34%, Nuke at 12%, US Invasion at 64%

Iran-related markets form a complex risk picture: regime fall by 2027 at 34%, nuclear weapon at 12%, US invasion at 64% (though this may reflect broad interpretation), and NPT withdrawal at 28%. The US-Iran nuclear deal market sits at 49% — essentially a coin flip. These markets collectively suggest elevated geopolitical tail risk in the Middle East that could cascade into oil and equity markets.

Iran Regime Fall at 36%, Nuclear Deal at 50%: Divergent Middle East Scenarios

Markets are pricing two very different Iran outcomes simultaneously: a 36% chance the regime falls entirely before 2027, yet a 50% chance of a US-Iran nuclear deal. Iran nuke probability is at 12% while nuclear test odds are at 13%. US invasion of Iran is priced at a concerning 67%. These probabilities suggest traders see a volatile, binary outcome space for US-Iran relations.